[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040404
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 18W in the eastern Atlantic, from
03N to 18N, moving W at 20 kt. Associated convection is isolated
and weak.

A tropical wave extends along 52W in the Atlantic, from 06N to
23N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
ahead of the wave axis from 09N to 11N between 52W and 61W.

A strong tropical wave extends across the western Caribbean from
09N81W to 21N76W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from
11N to 22N, between 68W and 82W. Fresh to strong winds are
observed behind the wave in the central Caribbean, where seas are
8-10 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W to the coast of French
Guiana near 05N52W. Convection is isolated and weak along these
boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure in the NE gulf dominates the pattern tonight.
In the western Gulf, SE winds are moderate with 2-4 ft seas. In
the southern Gulf, E winds are moderate to locally fresh near the
NW Yucatan Peninsula with 3-5 ft seas. Conditions are more
favorable in the NE Gulf, with light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft
seas.

For the forecast, a surface ridge will extend across the northern
Gulf through Tue night before drifting north of the area through
mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail
through this time. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near
the NW Yucatan peninsula through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the
active wave in the central Caribbean Sea.

A robust tropical wave is causing strong E winds in the central
Caribbean where seas are 8-10 ft. Winds are moderate to fresh in
the eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Winds are gentle to
moderate in the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, a strong tropical wave extending from eastern
Cuba to western Panama will continue moving quickly westward
across the western Caribbean through Mon, followed by a broad
surge of strong winds and high seas. Winds and seas will then
diminish over most of the basin through mid week as the tropical
wave moves west of the basin. Looking ahead, another tropical wave
will move across the northeast Caribbean Tue and into the central
Caribbean Wed and Thu. Winds and seas will start to increase
again by Thu over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure
builds north of the area following this tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the
waves moving across the basin.

A weak gradient south of a high pressure ridge dominates the
pattern in the western Atlantic. Winds are gentle to moderate
from the SE, with locally fresh conditions near the southern
Bahamas. In the central Atlantic, gentle E winds north of 28N
increase to moderate south of 28N. In the eastern Atlantic,
moderate NE winds dominate, with an area of fresh winds south of
the Canary Islands. Buoys and altimeter data agree that seas are
generally 3-5 ft north of 27N and 5-7 ft south of 27N across the
basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extending from the central
Atlantic to northeast Florida will persist through the week. The
northern portion of a strong tropical wave currently over eastern
Cuba is supporting strong winds and rough seas near the Turks and
Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas. These winds and seas will
diminish through tonight as the wave moves westward, but strong
winds may still pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola through
Tue night.

$$
Flynn
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