[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jan 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning:
A strong cold front currently over the central Gulf will move
quickly southward through tonight. Near-gale to gale winds will
develop behind the front offshore NE Mexico later this afternoon
and then spread southward to offshore Veracruz early this evening.
Seas are expected to rise and reach 9 to 11 ft late this
afternoon, then peak between 13 and 15 ft tonight. Marine
conditions should gradually improve on Sat.

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:
The aforementioned cold front will also move off the N
Florida/Georgia coast into the Atlantic waters this afternoon,
bringing strong to near-gale winds to the waters offshore the SE
U.S. this evening. Winds will increase to gale force by late
tonight. Seas are going to build and reach 11 to 13 ft late
tonight, 13 to 16 ft Sat morning and then even higher at 16 to 19
ft by Sat afternoon. Winds should start to decrease Sat night,
then the seas will follow on Sun.

Please read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over central Africa. An ITCZ extends
west-southwestward from 04N16W to 01N30W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator to 06N
between 15W to 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on a Gale Warning.

A strong cold front extends west-southwestward from central
Florida across the central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Extensive
cloudiness and scattered showers are occurring near and N of the
front to the Gulf States. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale
northerly winds are seen behind the front across the N Gulf. Seas
are 7 to 10 ft over the NW Gulf, and 6 to 8 ft for the NE Gulf.
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present
over the S Gulf.

For the forecast, the strong cold front will move quickly across
the Gulf waters through this evening. It will bring gale force
winds and building seas of 12-15 ft offshore NE Mexico this
afternoon and offshore Veracruz by this evening. The central and
E Gulf can expect frequent gusts to gale force this afternoon
through Sat morning with rough seas. The front will exit the basin
by tonight. Marine conditions will improve by Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough reaching westward from W Cuba to the Yucatan
Peninsula is producing scattered showers across the Yucatan
Channel. Convergent trade winds are causing similar conditions
over the Lesser Antilles, and Venezuela coastal waters. Surface
ridging is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft
over the NW basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE winds with seas
at 6 to 8 ft exist near the Colombia coast. Gentle to moderate
trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades are expected in the
S central Caribbean with mainly moderate trades elsewhere. A cold
front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight reaching from E Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning, and from Haiti to near Cabo
Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly
winds and building seas of 8 to 10 ft will follow the front with
the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to locally strong
winds can be expected over the Windward Passage Sun through early
Tue behind the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on a Gale Warning.

A cold front stretches west-southwestward from just E of Bermuda
across 31N64W to 29N70W, then continues as a stationary front to a
1012 mb low N of the Bahamas at 28N78W. A surface trough then
extends southward from this low to W Cuba. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are evident near these features N of 26N
between 62W and the Florida-Georgia coast. A weak 1018 mb low over
the central Atlantic near 24N56W is generating scattered showers N
of 23N between 55W and 60W. An upper-level low near 22N43W is
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 18N to 27N
between 39W and 45W. Aided by divergent flow aloft, a surface
trough near 6N48W is creating scattered moderate convection from
the Equator to 07N between 34W and French Guinea/Brazil coast.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas of 8 to
11 ft are present near the stationary/cold front, N of 28N between
63W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate with locally
fresh NE to ESE trades with seas at 6 to 8 ft dominate N of 05N
between the African coast and 52W. Light to gentle winds with seas
at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds are N of the frontal
boundary. The front will lift northward today as the low pressure
moves NE. The attendant cold front will reach from 31N76W to S
Florida by this evening, and from 31N70W to E Cuba by Sat morning.
Strong to gale force winds and building seas of 16 to 20 ft are
expected behind the cold front.

$$

Chan
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