[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jan 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf this morning and
move out of the basin by tonight. Gales will develop offshore NE
Mexico this afternoon and spread south to offshore Veracruz later
today. Seas will range between 10 to 15 ft within the strongest
winds. Gusts to gale force can be expected across the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Gales will diminish by Sat, and conditions
will improve by Sun. Please read the latest Offshore Forecast,
that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml, for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A strong cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast
later today, and bring strong to near gale force winds to much of
the SW N Atlantic basin Fri night and Sat. Gale winds will develop
north of 27N late tonight with the sea heights building to near
20 feet. Gales will end by Sat night, with winds diminishing by
Sun and seas subsiding by Mon. Please read the latest Offshore
Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to
02N25W and 01N31W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N
to 06N between 12W to 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
gale-force wind warning.

A surface trough is along the coast of Mexico from 20N95W to
24N97W. Moderate to fresh winds are in the NW Gulf with light to
gentle winds elsewhere. The latest buoys across the Gulf of Mexico
indicate seas range 3 to 6 ft, with the highest off the
Brownsville, TX coast.

For the forecast, a trong cold front will move into the NW Gulf
this morning and sweep across the basin, exiting by tonight. Gales
will develop offshore NE Mexico this afternoon and spread S to
offshore Veracruz by this evening. Seas will range between 10 to
15 ft within the strongest winds. The central and eastern Gulf of
Mexico can expect frequent gusts to gale force this afternoon
through Sat morning with rough seas. Gales near the Mexican coast
will diminish Sat along with the frequent gusts across much of the
Gulf. Conditions will improve by Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends south of the Yucatan Channel from 22N81W
to 20N87W. A trough also extends across the Windward Passage. No
significant convection is noted across the Caribbean at this time.
Strong winds are noted off the coast of Colombia with seas to 8
ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, strong winds will pulse offshore Colombia early
this morning and tonight with mainly moderate trades expected
elsewhere. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight and
move across the southwest Caribbean by Sat night. Fresh to strong
north to northeast winds will follow the front with rough seas
across the western portion of the basin through the weekend. Fresh
to locally strong winds can be expected over the Windward Passage
Sun through Tue behind the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
gale-force wind warning.

A stationary front continues to linger from 31N71W to Cape
Canaveral, FL near 28N80W. A 1013 mb low is noted south of the
front near 27N72W with a trough extending southwest of the low to
23N80W and isolated thunderstorms east of the low. Strong winds
are noted north of the front with seas 8 to 11 ft. Closer to the
Florida coast, buoys show seas 5 to 8 ft. A 1018 mb low is noted
near 24N54W with a trough extending along the low from 21N to 31N.
A second trough is noted from 22N60W to 27N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near these features from 22N to 31N between
53W to 64W. A third trough extends from 13N44W to 20N44W with
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 14N to 25N
between 37W and 46W. Seas range 5 to 8 ft across the central
Atlantic. High pressure extends across the eastern Atlantic with
moderate to locally fresh winds and seas 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northward today
with the strong winds moving north of the area by this afternoon.
The low pressure between Florida and Bermuda will dissipate today.
A strong cold front will then push off the northeast Florida
coast by this evening and bring strong to near gale force winds
behind it. Gale force winds winds will develop N of 27N tonight,
with seas building to near 20 ft. The gale force winds will end by
Sat. Winds will diminish on Sun with seas subsiding by Mon.

$$
AReinhart
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