[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, then
race through the basin by Fri night, bringing strong to near gale
force winds to much of the basin through Sat. Gales will develop
offshore NE Mexico Fri afternoon and spread south to offshore
Veracruz Fri night. Seas will range between 10 to 15 ft within
the
strongest winds. Gales will diminish Sat, with slowly improving
conditions by the start of next week. Please, read the latest
Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane
Center,
at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml,
for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A strong cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.A., and
bring strong to
near gale force winds to much of the SW N Atlantic basin Fri
night
and Sat. Gale winds are likely north of 27N Sat, with the sea
heights building
to near 20 feet. These conditions will dissipate on Sun. Please,
read the latest
Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to
02N25W and 01N31W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 75
nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W and 27W, and from 04N
southward from 43W westward. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough and the ITCZ between 13W and 20W. Isolated moderate is in
the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
gale-force wind warning.

A surface trough is off the coast of Mexico from 21N to 25N
along 96W/97W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and widely scattered to scattered rainshowers, are to
the north of the line that runs from the Straits of Florida,
into the south central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.

Mostly moderate winds are in the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 5 feet.

A surface trough from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel
will drift SE and dissipate gradually tonight. A strong cold
front will move into the NW Gulf on Friday morning and sweep
across the basin, exiting by Friday night. Strong to near gale-
force winds and building seas can be expected for most of the
basin through Saturday. Gales will develop offshore NE Mexico Fri
afternoon, and spread S to offshore Veracruz Fri night. Seas will
range between 10 to 15 ft within the strongest winds. Gales will
diminish Sat, with slowly improving conditions by the start of
next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough passes through the NW Bahamas, through the
Straits of Florida, across NW Cuba, into the Yucatan Channel.
Rainshowers are possible from 20N northward from 80W westward.

A surface trough extends from the SE Bahamas, through the
Windward Passage, to 17N76W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 16N to the SE Bahamas between 70W
and 80W.

Scattered rainshowers are between: the line that extends from
Haiti to the coast of Panama that is along 80W, and the line
that extends from SE Cuba to E Honduras; and from 70W eastward.

Strong winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia between
73W and 78W. Moderate winds are within 260 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 72W and 79W. Moderate wind speeds cover the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 7
feet to 8 feet just to the north of Colombia. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the area.

Pulsing strong winds will prevail offshore Colombia tonight and
Fri night with mainly moderate trades expected elsewhere. A cold
front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri night and the southwest
Caribbean by Sat night. Expect fresh to strong north to
northeast winds and building seas across the western part of the
basin through the weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds can be
expected in the Windward Passage Sun through early next week
behind the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
gale-force wind warning.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 07N to 18N from
30W eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from
10N northward between 33W and 40W. The sea heights range from 7
feet to 11 feet from 18N northward between 40W and 50W. The sea
heights have been ranging from 8 feet to 13 feet from 08N
northward between 50W and 60W. The sea heights range from 4 feet
to 7 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Strong winds are from 20N to 28N between 35W and 45W. Mostly
strong, with some near gale-force winds are from 10N to 18N
between 20W and 30W. Strong winds are in the coastal waters of
Africa from 20N to 22N. Moderate winds are elsewhere from 45W
eastward.

A stationary front passes through 31N70W to western sections of
Florida near 27N82W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11
feet from the stationary front northward, and within 90 nm to
the south of the stationary front. A surface trough extends from
a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 28N72W, to the NW
Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, across NW Cuba, into
the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate is from 25N northward from 70W westward. Strong to near
gale-force winds are from the 1015 mb low pressure center and
the stationary front northward.

A stationary front is along 31N55W to 28N60W. A 1015 mb low
pressure center is near 28N72W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is from 25N northward
between 59W and 70W.

A surface trough is along 59W/60W from 21N to 26N.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side
of the surface trough.

A surface trough is along 28N53W, to a 1018 mb low pressure
center that is near 25N53W, to 20N54W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N
to 30N between 51W and 55W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
20N to 30N between 38W and 47W. A surface trough is along
43W/44W from 15N to 20N. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
moderate and isolated strong are within 400 nm to the east of
the surface trough from 17N to 22N, and from 23N to 25N between
42W and 44W. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area
that is from 13N to 30N between 35W and 48W.

A stationary front continues to linger from 31N71W to
near Cape Canaveral, with strong winds on the north side of the
boundary. A 1015 mb low is near 28N71W with strong winds south of
it. The front will dissipate through tonight, with winds
diminishing gradually through Fri afternoon. The low pressure
that is between Florida and Bermuda will move NE of the area by
Fri. A strong cold front then will move off the SE U.S. by Fri
night with strong to near gale force winds following it across
much of the basin through Sat. Gale-force winds are likely N of
27N Sat, with seas building to near 20 ft. These conditions will
subside on Sun.

$$
mt/AR
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