[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning:
A strong cold front extending from Naples, Florida to the Bay of
Campeche will exit the basin tonight. Near-gale to gale force
winds are behind the front across the Tampico and Veracruz
offshore waters with seas of 8 to 13 ft. Peak seas are expected to
increase to 15 ft tonight. Marine conditions should gradually
improve on Sat.

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:
A strong cold front extends from a 1006 mb low near 30N77W SW to
Naples, Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Strong winds are already
affecting the offshore waters N of 26N W of 74W. These winds will
rapidly reach gale force speeds tonight with building seas to 14
ft. Peak seas to 16 ft are forecast by Sat morning, increasing to
19 ft in the afternoon hours. Winds should start to decrease Sat
night, then the seas will follow on Sun.

Please read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over central Africa. The ITCZ extends
west-southwestward from 04N16W to 01N30W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 10W
and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on a Gale Warning.

The main feature in the basin is a strong cold front extending
from Naples, Florida to the Bay of Campeche this evening. There is
no deep convection associated with the front, however overcast
skies cover most of the basin. Strong to near-gale force northerly
winds follow the front, except for offshore waters of Tampico and
Veracruz that are experiencing gale conditions with seas to 13 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will exit the basin tonight. The
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico can expect frequent gusts to
gale force through Sat morning with rough seas. Seas are forecast
to build to 12-15 ft with the strongest winds. Marine conditions
will improve by Sun. Then, expect increasing southerly return flow
over the western Gulf Sun night into Mon ahead of the next cold
forecast to move across the NW Gulf on Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Patches of shallow moisture are supporting passing showers across
the far eastern Caribbean, the Lesser Antilles and western Puerto
Rico. Similar shower activity is occuring over the far NW basin
associated with a pre-frontal trough. Seas across most of the
basin are 3 to 4 ft, except in portions of the SW and south-
central Caribbean where moderate to locally fresh winds support
seas to 5 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in
the south-central Caribbean with mainly moderate trades elsewhere.
A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight reaching from
eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning, and from
Haiti to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Sun morning. Fresh
to strong northerly winds and building seas of 8-10 ft will
follow the front with the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel.
Fresh to locally strong winds can be expected over the Windward
Passage Sun through early Tue behind the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on a Gale Warning.

A strong cold front extends from a 1006 mb low near 30N77W SW to
Naples, Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Strong winds are already
affecting the offshore waters N of 26N W of 74W with seas to 8 ft.
The remainder Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge
that is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds over the
tropical and subtropical central and eastern Atlantic waters.

For the forecast, the front will lift northward as the low
pressure moves N of the forecast area by tonight. The attendant
cold front will reach from 31N72W to central Cuba by Sat morning.
Strong to gale force winds and building seas of 16-20 ft are
expected behind the cold front tonight and Sat. Winds will
diminish below gale force on Sun, but large seas will persist E of
the Bahamas through at least Mon.

$$
Ramos
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