[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0900 UTC, a strong cold front
extends from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula. A
line of showers and thunderstorms is found ahead of the front,
mainly north of 23N. Earlier scatterometer data showed NW winds of
30 to 40 kt behind the front while altimeter data captured seas to
18 ft in the north-central gulf. The frontal boundary is moving
quickly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and will exit the basin
this afternoon. Conditions will improve on Mon as high pressure
builds over the region.

Atlantic Gale Warning: The aforementioned cold front will emerge
off the Florida coast later this morning. Strong to near gale
force south winds are impacting the northwest offshore waters this
morning, and will rapidly increase to gale-force winds near
sunrise. Near-gale to gale force winds behind the cold front will
affect the waters north of about 27N through Mon afternoon. Seas
greater than 12 ft will impact the region through Mon afternoon.
Conditions will gradually improve late Mon into Tue morning.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the three warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N08W to near 02N17W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N17W to
00N30W to 02S45W. A few showers are noted off the coast of Africa,
mainly from 01N to 05N and E of 16W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning.

As of 0900 UTC, a strong cold front extends from the Florida Big
Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula generating near gale to gale
conditions across the basin.

For the forecast, near gale to gale force NW winds will continue
to follow the front through late this afternoon when the front is
forecast to be already east of the basin. Trailing fresh to strong
winds and rough seas in the eastern Gulf will gradually diminish
through Mon morning. Aside from the hazardous conditions described
above, scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany the front.
Conditions are forecast to improve on Mon as high pressure builds
over the region. A new cold front is forecast to emerge from the
coast of Texas Wed night and extend from the Florida Big Bend to
Tampico, Mexico Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase to
locally strong at night along Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela through Thu night. Seas will be in 5-7 ft range through
Tue night and increase to 8-11 ft Wed through Thu night.

Moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central
Caribbean will continue through Thu night with seas to 6 ft.

Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean
this morning followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building
seas. The front will extend from central Cuba to NE Honduras by
Mon morning where it will start to weaken before dissipating Mon
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning for portions of the southwest Atlantic.

High pressure ridging prevails over the western Atlantic E of 78W
with light to gentle variable winds N of 22N. Northerly swell to
11 ft NE of the Bahamas will gradually subside today. A cold front
will emerge off the coast of Florida this morning. Fresh to
strong S winds affecting the offshore waters of Florida W of 76W
will rapidly increase to gale force this morning. Near gale to
gale force winds N of 27N will follow the front through Mon
afternoon when the front is forecast to extend from 31N67W to the
Turks and Caicos Islands. Strong to near gale force winds will
then continue to affect the northern waters through Tue morning.
The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW offshore waters
Thu night.

Otherwise, in the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from
31N48W to 22N60W where it stalls and weakens to the Dominican
Republic. Winds are light to gentle associated with this front,
however northerly swell continue to support seas in the 8 to 15
ft.

$$
Ramos
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net