[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0900 UTC, a strong cold front
extends from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula. A
line of showers and thunderstorms is found ahead of the front,
mainly north of 23N. Earlier scatterometer data showed NW winds of
30 to 40 kt behind the front while altimeter data captured seas to
18 ft in the north-central gulf. The frontal boundary is moving
quickly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and will exit the basin
this afternoon. Conditions will improve on Mon as high pressure
builds over the region.

Atlantic Gale Warning: The aforementioned cold front will emerge
off the Florida coast later this morning. Strong to near gale
force south winds are impacting the northwest offshore waters this
morning, and will rapidly increase to gale-force winds near
sunrise. Near-gale to gale force winds behind the cold front will
affect the waters north of about 27N through Mon afternoon. Seas
greater than 12 ft will impact the region through Mon afternoon.
Conditions will gradually improve late Mon into Tue morning.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the three warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N08W to near 02N17W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N17W to
00N30W to 02S45W. A few showers are noted off the coast of Africa,
mainly from 01N to 05N and E of 16W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning.

As of 0900 UTC, a strong cold front extends from the Florida Big
Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula generating near gale to gale
conditions across the basin.

For the forecast, near gale to gale force NW winds will continue
to follow the front through late this afternoon when the front is
forecast to be already east of the basin. Trailing fresh to strong
winds and rough seas in the eastern Gulf will gradually diminish
through Mon morning. Aside from the hazardous conditions described
above, scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany the front.
Conditions are forecast to improve on Mon as high pressure builds
over the region. A new cold front is forecast to emerge from the
coast of Texas Wed night and extend from the Florida Big Bend to
Tampico, Mexico Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase to
locally strong at night along Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela through Thu night. Seas will be in 5-7 ft range through
Tue night and increase to 8-11 ft Wed through Thu night.

Moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central
Caribbean will continue through Thu night with seas to 6 ft.

Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean
this morning followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building
seas. The front will extend from central Cuba to NE Honduras by
Mon morning where it will start to weaken before dissipating Mon
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning for portions of the southwest Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N50W to 23N61W, where it transitions
into a stationary front to Hispaniola. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the frontal boundary,
mainly north of 22N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict
fresh SW winds in association with the convection. Behind the cold
front, a 1019 mb high pressure dominate the western tropical
Atlantic, resulting in fairly tranquil weather conditions. Seas of
8-15 ft are present north of 22N and between 49W and 77W, with
seas greater than 12 ft being found north of 27N and between 54W
and 70W.

Farther east, a 1010 mb low pressure system located near 29N27W
continues to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms, but the
convection is mainly north of 30N and between 23W and 27W. A
stationary front reaches the low pressure from the northeast,
while a trough extends from the low pressure to 19N30W. Latest
satellite-derived wind data indicate that strong to near gale-
force winds are occurring north of 27N and between the low
pressure and 34W. Seas of 8-14 ft prevail north of 22N and
between 25W and 40W, with seas greater than 12 ft occurring north
of 27N and between 27W and 35W.

The pressure gradient as a result of the low pressure near 29N27W
and a strong high pressure system over Spain allow for fresh to
strong SE winds to affect the Canary Islands and the coast of
Morocco. Seas in the region are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere in the tropical
Atlantic, the weather is tranquil, winds are moderate or weaker
and seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure ridging prevails over the western
Atlantic, leading to gentle winds across the area. However,
large northerly swell will continue to affect areas east of 76W
and north of 23N tonight. A cold front is forecast to emerge off
the coast of Florida on Sun morning. Strong S winds will start
affecting waters offshore of Florida late tonight, rapidly
increasing to gale force early Sun morning. Near gale to gale
force winds will affect the waters N of 27N through Mon.
Conditions will gradually improve late Tue. High pressure will
prevail over the area for the middle of next week.

$$
Ramos
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