[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160457
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jan 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0300 UTC, a strong cold front
extends from Pensacola, Florida to near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. A
line of showers and thunderstorms is found ahead of the front,
mainly north of 23N. Surface observations and recent scatterometer
satellite data show strong to gale-force NW winds behind the cold
front, with the strongest winds occurring in the NW and SW Gulf.
Seas of 8-18 ft are also present behind the front. A buoy located
a couple hundred miles east of Brownsville, Texas, reported wave
heights of 16.7 ft. The frontal boundary is moving quickly across
the Gulf of Mexico and will continue SE across the rest of the
basin through late this afternoon. Conditions will improve on Mon
as high pressure builds over the region.

Atlantic Gale Warning: The previously-mentioned cold front will
emerge off the Florida coast later this morning. Strong south
winds will begin to impact the northwest offshore waters early
this morning, with winds increasing to gale-force this morning.
Near-gale to gale force winds behind the cold front will affect
the waters north of about 27N through Mon afternoon. Seas greater
than 12 ft will impact the region through Mon afternoon.
Conditions will gradually improve late Mon into Tue morning.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the three warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N08W to near 02N15W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N15W to
00N30W to 02S45W. A few showers are noted off the coast of Africa,
mainly from 00N to 06N and E of 13W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning.

Outside of the aforementioned cold front, the weather conditions
are tranquil in the SE Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate
to fresh winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted ahead of the frontal
boundary.

For the forecast, the front is forecast to move east of the basin
Sun afternoon, however trailing fresh to strong winds and rough
seas in the eastern Gulf will gradually diminish through Mon
morning. Aside from the hazardous conditions described above,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.
Conditions are forecast to improve on Mon as high pressure builds
over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tranquil weather conditions prevail across the Caribbean Sea. A
few shallow showers are noted near the Lesser Antilles and the
coast of Nicaragua due to pockets of low-level moisture moving
westward with the trades. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
show fresh to strong trades off NW Colombia, while moderate to
locally fresh trades are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf
of Honduras. Moderate or weaker winds are present elsewhere in the
basin. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the south-central Caribbean
and Gulf of Honduras and 2-4 ft in the remainder of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean will
increase to locally strong at night along Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela through Thu night. Winds in the eastern and
central Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh tonight and
continue through Thu night. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to
enter the NW Caribbean on Sun morning followed by fresh to strong
NW winds and building seas. The front will extend from central
Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon morning where it will start to weaken
before dissipating Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning for portions of the southwest Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N50W to 23N61W, where it transitions
into a stationary front to Hispaniola. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the frontal boundary,
mainly north of 22N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict
fresh SW winds in association with the convection. Behind the cold
front, a 1019 mb high pressure dominate the western tropical
Atlantic, resulting in fairly tranquil weather conditions. Seas of
8-15 ft are present north of 22N and between 49W and 77W, with
seas greater than 12 ft being found north of 27N and between 54W
and 70W.

Farther east, a 1010 mb low pressure system located near 29N27W
continues to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms, but the
convection is mainly north of 30N and between 23W and 27W. A
stationary front reaches the low pressure from the northeast,
while a trough extends from the low pressure to 19N30W. Latest
satellite-derived wind data indicate that strong to near gale-
force winds are occurring north of 27N and between the low
pressure and 34W. Seas of 8-14 ft prevail north of 22N and
between 25W and 40W, with seas greater than 12 ft occurring north
of 27N and between 27W and 35W.

The pressure gradient as a result of the low pressure near 29N27W
and a strong high pressure system over Spain allow for fresh to
strong SE winds to affect the Canary Islands and the coast of
Morocco. Seas in the region are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere in the tropical
Atlantic, the weather is tranquil, winds are moderate or weaker
and seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure ridging prevails over the western
Atlantic, leading to gentle winds across the area. However,
large northerly swell will continue to affect areas east of 76W
and north of 23N tonight. A cold front is forecast to emerge off
the coast of Florida on Sun morning. Strong S winds will start
affecting waters offshore of Florida late tonight, rapidly
increasing to gale force early Sun morning. Near gale to gale
force winds will affect the waters N of 27N through Mon.
Conditions will gradually improve late Tue. High pressure will
prevail over the area for the middle of next week.

$$
DELGADO
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