[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161654
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front that stretches from near
Tampa Bay to the Yucatan Peninsula late this morning will move SE
of the area by this evening. Strong winds follow this front, with
gale force W to NW winds occurring the the NE Gulf. Seas behind
the front in the area of highest winds range from 12 to 18 ft. In
the wake of the front, conditions will improve Mon as high
pressure builds into the area.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force S winds are being observed off
the Florida coast in advance of a cold front that will move
offshore today. Gale force W to NW winds will develop behind the
front, N of 27N, through Mon. Seas of 10 to 14 ft already ongoing
in the area of gale force winds will increase to 12 to 18 ft
behind the front. Conditions will gradually improve late Mon
into Tue morning.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the three warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N08W to near 02N17W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N17W to
00N32W. Convection previously associated with these features has
diminished.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
a Gale Warning for the NE Gulf.

A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay through the Yucatan
Channel. Ahead of the front, a squall line of thunderstorms
stretches from near Naples, Florida, to SW of Key West, Florida.
This cold front and associated squall line will exit the basin by
this evening. High pressure centered over NE Mexico is building
into the basin in the wake of the cold front, bringing strong NW
winds to much of the area. Seas are generally 8 to 13 ft.

For the forecast, in the wake of the cold front gale force winds
will continue over the NE Gulf into this evening. Trailing fresh
to strong winds and rough seas in the eastern Gulf will gradually
diminish on Mon. Conditions are forecast to improve on Mon as high
pressure builds over the region. A new cold front is forecast to
emerge from the coast of Texas Wed night and extend from the
Florida Big Bend to Tampico, Mexico Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is noted in the Yucatan Channel, inducing scattered
moderate convection within 90 nm ahead of it. Dry conditions
prevail across the rest of the basin, with mainly moderate trades.
Seas average 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Colombia, where
locally fresh winds are occurring. These winds will increase to
locally strong at nights along Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela through Thu night. Seas in this area will then build to
8 to 11 ft starting Tue night.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern
and central Caribbean will continue through Thu night. Otherwise,
a cold front extending from Tampa Bay to Cancun is forecast to
enter the NW Caribbean later this morning, followed by fresh to
strong NW winds and building seas. The front will extend from
central Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon morning where it will start to
weaken before dissipating Mon night. Seas in the Yucatan Channel
are forecast to peak tonight near 13 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning for portions of the southwest Atlantic.

A squall line of thunderstorms is moving off the Florida coast at
midday, with a cold front following closely behind it. Ahead of
the front, strong to gale force S winds are occurring W of 73W and
N of 25N. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered just S of Bermuda.
This is leading to a broad area of gentle to moderate winds from
73W east to a cold front that stretches from 31N44W to 23N57W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of this
frontal boundary. Farther east, a 1006 mb low pressure is centered
near 30N27W. A cold front trails south from the low to 21N30W.
Gale conditions are observed N of the area to the N of the low,
with strong N winds behind the front, N of 24N and E of 35W. Ahead
of the front, fresh to strong SE winds prevail N of 23N, including
in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm of the low pressure, continuing
SE to along the frontal boundary.

To the S of 23N, generally moderate trades prevail, with gentle
mainly N flow to the E of 35W. Seas across the basin away from
frontal boundaries are 5 to 7 ft. Seas behind the eastern low
pressure area and the central Atlantic cold front area 8 to 14 ft.

For the forecast W of 65W, expect gale force winds to continue on
both sides of a cold front as it moves eastward through Mon
afternoon, when the front is forecast to extend from 31N67W to the
SE Bahamas. Strong to near gale force winds will then continue to
affect the northern waters through Tue morning. The next cold
front is forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Thu night.

$$
KONARIK
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