[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A broad area of low pressure
extending from the northern Caribbean to western Atlantic
is moving northeast and will combine with low pressure
moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Explosive
cyclogenesis is then expected through Fri as the system continues
northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes. A cold front extending
from the low pressure center will cross the subtropical waters of
the western Atlantic tonight into Fri. Near gale-force westerly
winds and rough seas will build Fri covering the area north of
27N between 60W and the coast of Florida, with areas of
sustained gale force winds expected near the frontal boundary.
Winds will quickly decrease and seas gradually abate through the
day Sat. A strong cold front is forecast to emerge off the coast
of Florida on Sun. Strong to gale-force winds are expected on
either side of the front on Sun and Sun night north of 27N.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico: A strong cold front associated with a very
potent area of low pressure is forecast to move across the far
NW Gulf early on Sat, then across the rest of the basin by early
Sun evening. A Gale Warning is now in effect for most of the
western and northern Gulf waters for Sat and Sat night. Gale
conditions are possible over some areas of the north-central and
NE Gulf late Sat night into early Sun. Strong west to northwest
gale-force winds and building seas are expected behind the front,
while gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front
north of about 27N. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent. It reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W and extends southwest to 05N21W, where latest
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to
04N30W to 04N40W and to 03N3N45W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 04W-28W and within 30
nm north of the ITCZ between 26W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please
see the Special Features section above for details.

Latest ASCAT data shows fresh north to north winds continuing
over the SW Gulf surrounding a surface trough. The strong winds
are mainly confined to the west of 94W. A 1023 mb high pressure
center off southern Texas is supporting gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow over the remainder of the basin. Seas are 3 to
5 ft south of 25N and west of 85W, with relatively low seas of
1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, a developing low pressure system E of Florida
will support fresh NW winds over the eastern Gulf tonight into
Fri morning. Southerly return flow will set up over the western
Gulf by late Fri ahead of a strong cold front forecast to move
over NW  Gulf region by Sat morning. Strong to gale force winds
and building seas are expected in the wake of the front Sat
through Sun. Ahead of the front, outside the gale-force
southerly winds north of 27N, will exist and are forecast
to move southeast of the area by Sun afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad low pressure trough extending across Cuba has disrupted
the pressure gradient causing the winds to decrease below average
for January. Latest scatterometer and buoy data reveal mainly
gentle to moderate trades east of 75W, except for moderate to
fresh trades over the south-central waters. Moderate to fresh NW
winds are over the NW Caribbean, influenced by the lower
pressure north of the area. Mainly gentle southerly flow is over
the southwestern Caribbean. Seas across the basin are in 3-5 ft
range, except for lowers seas of 2-3 ft north of 18N and between
64W-80W

For the forecast, no significant changes are expected. Moderate
to fresh trade winds will remain over the south-central
Caribbean through the upcoming weekend. Gentle to moderate winds
are expected elsewhere across the sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic waters north of
27N between 58W-65W. Please see the Special Features section
above for details.

Low pressure of 1010 mb is in the vicinity of the central
Bahamas near 25N75W. A trough extends from the low southwestward
to across central Cuba. Another trough extends from the low
analyzed northwestward to 31N76W. Latest scatterometer data shows
gentle to moderate northerly winds south of 27N and west 75W.
The data also shows northwest to north gentle to moderate winds
north of 27N and west of 77W. Between 75W-65W, fresh to locally
strong east-southeast winds are present from 27N-30N and light to
moderate winds are south of 27N between 75W-65W. Seas of 6-10 ft
are within the area of fresh to locally strong winds. Recent
altimeter data indicates seas of 3-6 ft range elsewhere to the
west of 65W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned area of low
pressure will bring gale-force winds and building seas across
the waters N of 27N tonight and Fri. The associated cold front
will move across the SW N Atlantic late today through Fri. Marine
conditions will improve on Sat ahead of the next cold front
forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun. Strong to
near-gale force winds are expected on either side of the front on
Sun and Sun night. A large area of rain with embedded scattered
showers and thunderstorms is shifting eastward north of 24N
between 65W and 74W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
from 22N to 24N between 65W-74W.

Between 40W and 65W, a cold front extends from near 31N40W to
28N50W, then transitions to a stationary front to 28N55W to
28N60W to 27N65W. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the
cold front turn easterly behind the stationary front. Satellite
imagery reveals rain along with embedded scattered showers and
thunderstorms shifting eastward north of 27N and between 40-65W.
Ahead of the boundary, locally high pressure supports gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas range from 6-8 ft west of 40W.

Farther east, low pressure of 1008 mb is centered near 29N28W.
A cold front extends from an occlusion north of our area near
29N25W to 23N27W, where it begins to dissipate to 19N34W to
19N40W. A secondary cold front extends from the same low pressure
system to 25N27W to 23N34W and northwest to north to near
28N37W. Fresh to strong northwest winds precede the secondary
front with fresh to strong southwest winds between the second
front and the leading cold front. Seas in this area are 8-11 ft
range due to mainly a northwest swell. Areas of rain with
embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ahead
of the first front north 26N and east to near 22W.

$$
Aguirre
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