[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140501
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A broad area of low pressure in the
western Atlantic will combine with low pressure moving off the
Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Explosive cyclogenesis is then
expected through Fri as the system moves northeast toward the
Canadian Maritimes. A cold front extending from the low pressure
center will cross the subtropical waters of the western Atlantic
tonight into Fri. Near gale-force westerly winds and rough seas
will build Fri covering the area north of 27N between 58W and the
coast of Florida, with areas of sustained gale force winds
expected near and ahead of the frontal boundary. Winds will
quickly decrease Sat while seas gradually abate through the
weekend. A second strong cold front is forecast to emerge off the
coast of Florida on Sun. Strong to gale-force winds are expected
on either side of the front on Sun and Sun night north of 27N.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front associated with
a very potent area of low pressure is forecast to move across the
far NW Gulf early on Sat, then across the rest of the basin by
early Sun evening. A Gale Warning is now in effect for most of the
western and northern Gulf waters for Sat and Sat night. Gale
conditions are possible over some areas of the north-central and
NE Gulf late Sat night into early Sun. Strong west to northwest
gale-force winds and building seas are expected behind the front,
while gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front
north of about 27N. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: A low pressure of 1009 mb is centered near
29N28W with an occlusion wrapping around to the east. A recent
scatterometer pass revealed an area of gale force winds behind the
occlusion near 28N24W. This low has been cut off from the jet
stream and is expected to remain in the east Atlantic for several
days with strong winds possible throughout the weekend. Refer to
the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/frandlarge
/metarea2 for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea to 06N20W
where the ITCZ continues through 05N30W to 02N43W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 240 nm south of the monsoon
trough. Isolated moderate convection is observed along the length
of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please
see the Special Features section above for details.

High pressure dominates the western Gulf with gentle winds. The
pressure gradient tightens in the eastern basin with winds
increasing to moderate northerly in the central Gulf and fresh
northwesterly in the eastern Gulf. Seas are mainly slight,
building to moderate in the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a low pressure system NE of the Bahamas will
support fresh NW winds over the eastern Gulf tonight into Fri
morning. Southerly return flow will set up over the western Gulf
by late Fri ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the
Gulf region by Sat morning. Strong to gale force winds and
building seas are expected in the wake of the front Sat through
Sun. Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail ahead of the
front forecast to move SE of the area by Sun afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low pressure in the western subtropical Atlantic has disrupted
the climatological pressure gradient causing winds to decrease
below average. Latest scatterometer and buoy data reveal mainly
gentle to moderate trades in the central and eastern Caribbean
with 2-4 ft seas. NW winds are moderate in the NW Caribbean with
3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail over
the south-central Caribbean through the upcoming weekend. Gentle
to moderate winds are expected elsewhere across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic waters north of
27N between 58W-65W. Please see the Special Features section
above for details.

Low pressure of 1006 mb in the western Atlantic near 27N70W is
extending a trough into the Windward Passage. West of this trough
winds are fresh to strong from the northwest with 4-6 ft seas.
East of the trough, scatterometer data revealed near gale to gale
force southerly winds with 5-7 ft seas reported by buoys.
Satellite data also reveals scattered moderate convection with
embedded thunderstorm east of the trough.

For the forecast west of 65W, a large area of low pressure is NE
of the Bahamas with gale force winds currently affecting the NE
offshore waters. This system will continue to bring gale force
winds and building seas across the waters N of 27N tonight and
Fri. A surface through associated with it will move across the SW
N Atlantic waters through Fri. Marine conditions will briefly
improve on Sat ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the
coast of Florida on Sun. Strong to gale force winds are expected
on either side of the front on Sun and Sun night.

In the central Atlantic, a stationary boundary extends from
31N40W to 28N56W. North of this feature, a scatterometer
pass found a fresh to strong easterly breeze with altimeter data
reporting rough seas of 9-12 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a low
pressure system near 29N28W is causing gale force winds. Refer to
the Gale Warning East of 35W in the special features section above
for details. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate with
moderate seas.

$$
FLYNN
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