[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A broad area of low pressure
extending from the northern Caribbean to western Atlantic
is moving northeast and will combine with low pressure
moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Thu. Explosive
cyclogenesis is then expected through Fri as the system
continues northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes. A cold front
extending from the low pressure center will cross the
subtropical waters of the western Atlantic late Thu into Fri.
Near gale force westerly winds and rough seas will build Fri to
dominate the area north of 27N between 60W and the coast of
Florida with areas of sustained gale force winds expected near
the frontal boundary. Winds will quickly decrease and seas
gradually abate through the day Sat. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W. The ITCZ continues SW from 11N16W to
04N30W to 03N45W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm
south of the ITCZ between 25W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A recent satellite scatterometer pass reveals fresh NW to N
winds continuing over the SW Gulf surrounding a surface trough.
The strong winds are mainly confined to the west of 94W. A 1025
mb high pressure center off southern Texas is supporting gentle
to moderate anticyclonic flow over the remainder of the basin.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft south of 25N and west of 85W, with 1 to 3 ft
seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters
through Fri. Southerly return flow will set up over the western
Gulf by late Fri ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter
the Gulf region by Sat morning. Strong to gale force winds and
building seas are expected in the wake of the front Sat through
Sun. Fresh to strong southerly winds will prevail ahead of the
front forecast to move SE of the area by Sun afternoon. A Gale
Warning will likely be issued by this afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad low pressure trough extending across Cuba has disrupted
the pressure gradient causing the winds to decrease below average
for January. Recent scatterometer and buoy data reveal mainly
gentle to moderate trades east of 75W. Moderate to fresh NW
winds are over the NW Caribbean, influenced by the lower
pressure north of the area. Mainly gentle southerly flow is over
the SW Caribbean. Seas across the basin are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, no significant changes are expected. Moderate
to fresh trade winds will prevail over the south-central
Caribbean through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1013 mb low pressure center has developed east of the Florida
Straits near 25N75W. Scatterometer data from this morning
revealed an elongated area of cyclonic flow with gentle to
moderate N-NW winds west of 75W and fresh to locally strong SE-E
winds are east of 75W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms and 3
to 5 ft seas are over waters west of 65W

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned area of low
pressure will bring gale force winds and building seas across
the waters N of 27N tonight and Fri. The associated cold front
will move across the SW N Atlantic late today through Fri.
Marine conditions will improve on Sat ahead of the next cold
front forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun. Strong
to near gale force winds are expected on either side of the
front on Sun.

East of 65W, a cold front extends from 31N41W to 27N50W, then
transitions to a stationary front and continues west along 27N
to near 60W. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the cold
front turn easterly behind the stationary front. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the stationary front between
55W and 60W. Ahead of the boundary, locally high pressure
supports gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas range from 6
to 8 ft west of 40W.

Farther east, low pressure of 1010 mb is centered near 29N30W. A
cold front extends from an occlusion north of our area near
30N27W to 22N29W to 20N40W. A secondary cold front extends from
the low pressure centered from 28N29W to 23N32W to 26N38W. Fresh
to strong NW winds precede the secondary front with fresh to
strong SW winds between the second front and the leading cold
front. Seas in this area are 9 to 11 ft.

$$
Mora
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