[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jan 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Warning...

A strong cold front is moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Gale-force winds continue off the coast of Veracruz in Mexico.
Seas are up to 15 ft from the latest buoy data across the central
Gulf, with seas to 20 ft near the gale-force winds. The front
will continue moving SE, and exit the basin later today. The
gale- force winds are forecast to diminish to less than gale-
force this morning. The wind speeds and the sea heights will
subside by tonight.

...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Warning...

The current Gulf of Mexico cold front will exit the Georgia-South
Carolina coastline, and move into the W Atlantic Ocean early this
morning. Expect gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 8
feet to 14 feet offshore, N of 30N between 76W and 80W. Gale-force
winds are expected to diminish by late this afternoon, with winds
becoming moderate to fresh by tonight. Seas will subside by Wed.

...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Warning...

The pressure gradient from the low in Colombia combined with the
high pressure NE of the basin will bring brief gale force winds
near the coast of Colombia tonight and Tue night. Seas are
expected to build to 11 ft tonight and 10 ft Tue night. Strong
winds will continue across the central Caribbean through the rest
of the week.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at
the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details about each warning situation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N10W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N37W. A
surface trough is W of the ITCZ from 08N39W to 01N38W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 09W and 29W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force warning for the Gulf of Mexico.

A strong cold front stretches from the central Florida coast near
27N83W to the northeast Yucatan near 21N87W. Ahead of the front,
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas prevail. Behind the
front, widespread strong winds are noted across the entire basin
with gale-force winds continuing near the coast of Veracruz,
Mexico. Showers are along and ahead of the front. Seas are
building to 20 ft near Veracruz, and buoys in the central Gulf are
reporting 14-15 ft seas. Buoy 42039 in the NE Gulf reached to 14
ft late tonight and is now at 12 ft. Seas in the NW and north-
central Gulf are hovering near 8 ft. High pressure is building
quickly behind the front, stretching across the western and
central Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will move quickly out of the
basin later today. Gale- force winds are ongoing across the SW
Gulf with strong winds covering most of the basin. Gentle to
moderate winds continue in the extreme eastern Gulf ahead of the
front. Rough seas are also ongoing behind the front in the western
and central Gulf. Gale-force winds will end by this morning, with
the widespread strong winds and rough seas gradually subsiding by
tonight. Light to gentle variable winds are expected Tue
increasing to gentle to moderate speeds Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force warning for the Caribbean.

The tight pressure gradient between the 1023 mb high near 29N66W
in the Atlantic and the low pressure in Colombia is maintaining
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted in the eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of
Honduras, with light to gentle winds in the NW basin. Ahead of the
cold front in the Gulf of Mexico, showers and thunderstorms
stretch along the Yucatan and Belize coast. Seas are reaching 11
ft near the highest winds in the central Caribbean with 4-5 ft
seas in the eastern and NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale-force near the
Colombian coast tonight and Tue night, with strong winds
continuing in the central Caribbean through the week. Meanwhile,
trade winds in the E basin will diminish to gentle to moderate
speeds today as a cold front enters the SW N Atlantic waters. The
tail of this front will enter the far NW Caribbean later today and
bring fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan channel.
The front will dissipate by late tonight into Tue morning with
winds and seas improving by Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force warning for the Atlantic Ocean.

The strong cold front that is anticipated to across the Atlantic
today is pushing off the Florida coast. Gale-force winds are
likely occurring off the NE Florida coast, N of 30N between 78W
and 80W. Seas are ranging 8-12 ft. Showers are along the front.
Meanwhile, high pressure stretches across the rest of the western
and central Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb high near 29N66W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front enters the forecast waters
near 31N33W to 21N43W to 22N57W. A trough is behind the front from
30N38W to 25N46W to 30N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted along the front from 22N to 31N between 33W
and 41W. Behind the front, moderate to fresh northerly winds are
noted with seas 8 to 10 ft. High pressure stretches across the
rest of the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1031 mb high in the
Iberian Peninsula.

For the forecast, the strong cold front will enter the NW
offshore waters early this morning. Gale-force winds will begin as
the front pushes off the Florida coast, N of 30N and W of 78W.
Rough seas are also expected to build with the front. Gale- force
conditions will diminish late this afternoon as the front
continues to push farther east away from the area. Building seas
associated with the front will subside to the east of the Bahamas
on Wed.

$$
AReinhart
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