[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Warning...

A cold front extends from offshore NE Florida near 31N77W to the
NE tip of the Yucatan peninsula as of 1500 UTC. Gale-force winds
and seas up to 16 ft are occurring behind the frontal boundary,
with seas ranging from 12 to 16 ft being present N of 30N and
between 73W and 80W. Strong to near-gale force winds prevail ahead
of the cold front to 69W and north of the NW Bahamas. Gale-force
winds are expected to diminish by late this afternoon, with winds
becoming moderate to fresh by late tonight. Seas will subside by
Wednesday.

...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Warning...

The pressure gradient from the subtropical ridge north of the
Greater Antilles and lower pressures over northern South America
will bring brief gale force winds near the coast of NW Colombia
tonight and Tue night. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show
strong to near gale-force trades occurring offshore NW Colombia. Seas
are expected to build to 11 ft tonight and 10 ft Tuesday night.
Strong winds will continue across the central Caribbean through
the rest of the week.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at
the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details about each warning situation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N21W to 03N37W and to the coast of NE Brazil near 00N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ E of 25W. Scattered showers are also seen
on satellite imagery near the ITCZ and within 120 nm of the coast
of NE Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico has cleared most
of the basin, extending from SW Florida to the NE tip of the
Yucatan peninsula as of 1500 UTC. A few showers are noted near
the frontal boundary. The rest of the Gulf is dominated by a
strong high pressure system positioned over SE Texas, allowing dry
continental air to spill over most of the region. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass confirm that strong to near gale-
force winds are present over the Bay of Campeche and in the NE
Gulf, while fresh or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 8-16
ft are found over most of the Gulf, especially behind the frontal
boundary. Seas ranging from 12 to 16 ft are prevalent S of 27N
and between 86W and 96W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will exit the
basin later this morning. Strong to near gale force winds and
rough seas are ongoing across the the E and SW Gulf. These
conditions will gradually subside by tonight. Light to gentle
variable winds are expected Tue increasing to gentle to moderate
speeds Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force warning for the south-central Caribbean.

The aforementioned pressure gradient is also resulting in fresh to
strong trades occurring in the north-central and SW Caribbean
Sea, as depicted in the latest satellite-derived wind data.
Moderate to fresh trades are present in the eastern Caribbean Sea
and Gulf of Honduras, while weaker trades are noted in the NW
Caribbean. Seas of 5-8 ft are prevalent across most of the basin outside
of the south-central Caribbean, except for 2-5 ft seas in the NW
Caribbean. A dry airmass dominates the Caribbean Sea, only
allowing a few weak showers near the coast of NE Honduras.

For the forecast, surface ridging across the SW N Atlantic
extending to the northern Caribbean and high pressure building in
the wake of a cold front entering the far NW Caribbean waters this
morning will continue to support fresh to locally strong trade
winds across the central and portions of the SW basin through Fri.
Brief gale- force winds are expected near the Colombian coast
tonight and Tue night. The cold front will bring fresh NE winds
and building seas to the Yucatan channel and the NW Caribbean
through Tue when the front is forecast to dissipate from western
Cuba to Belize adjacent waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds are expected to diminish in the E Caribbean Tue and resume
again Tue night through Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force warning for the western tropical Atlantic.

Outside of the cold front located offshore NE Florida, the only
other feature of interest is a weak low pressure system centered
near 27N41W. A stationary front extends from the low pressure to
31N35W and shallow convection is noted E of the low pressure and
frontal boundary to 33W and north of 25N. A weakening cold front
extends from the low pressure to 19N50W to 22N60W and only a few
weak showers are seen near the boundary. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong NE winds are
occurring north of 25N and W of the low pressure to 46W. Seas of
7-10 ft are found north of the frontal boundaries, mainly between
33W and 60W. This is confirmed by a recent altimeter satellite
pass showing seas up to 10 ft near 27N45W. Elsewhere, fresh trades
and seas of 6-9 ft are also observed south of 15N and between 40W
and the Lesser Antilles. The rest of the basin enjoys tranquil
weather conditions, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, the previously-mentioned cold front moving
across the NW offshore waters this morning is generating gale-
force winds N of 30N with rough seas. Gale conditions will
diminish late this afternoon as the front continues to push
farther east away from the area. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas associated with the front will gradually subside to
the east of the Bahamas on Wed.

$$
DELGADO
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