[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jan 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A strong cold front is moving through the central and SW Gulf of
Mexico. Gale-force winds have developed off the coasts of SE
Texas and NE Mexico, and they have spread southward to the waters
that are off the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. Earlier altimeter
data have been showing that the sea heights have been building
rapidly, ranging from 12 feet to 16 feet. A recent buoy showed 18
feet in the NW Gulf of Mexico. The front will continue moving SE,
and it will reach from SW Florida to the central Yucatan Peninsula
by this morning. The gale-force winds are forecast to diminish to
less than gale-force later this morning. The wind speeds and the
sea heights will subside, from tonight through Mon, from NW to SE
across the basin, with the front exiting the Gulf of Mexico by
sunset on Monday.

.Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

The current Gulf of Mexico cold front will exit the
Georgia-South Carolina coastline, and move into the W Atlantic
Ocean early on Monday morning. Expect gale-force winds and sea
heights ranging from 8
feet to 14 feet offshore, from the N Florida-Georgia coast by
dawn on Monday morning. The wind speeds and the sea heights
should begin to subside late Monday afternoon, as the front
moves eastward more, and into the W Atlantic Ocean, and away
from the USA coastline.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at
the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details about each warning situation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W, to
03N37W. A surface trough curves from 01N38W to 06N41W and
08N40W.  Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 10N southward between 10W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the Gulf of Mexico.

A strong cold front is moving through the Gulf of Mexico, from
the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to the coast of Mexico near
19N96W. The cold front will move through the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico, quickly, through Monday morning, and exit the basin
later on Monday. Gale-force winds are ongoing in the SW Gulf.
Strong winds are covering most of the basin, with gentle to
moderate winds in the eastern Gulf. Rough seas are ongoing also,
behind the front, in the western and central Gulf of Mexico. The
wind speeds and the sea heights will subside gradually, through
Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Light to gentle variable
winds are expected on Tuesday, increasing to gentle to moderate
speeds on Wednesday. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong covers the inland areas from the northern half of
Guatemala to the NW half of the Yucatan Peninsula. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm of the
coast of Florida, from 28N northward from 85W eastward.

A surface ridge passes from an Atlantic Ocean 1023 mb high
pressure center that is near 28N67W, to the NW Bahamas, through
26N75W, to 23N87W in the SE Gulf of Mexico.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight surface pressure gradient between the 28N67W Atlantic
Ocean 1023 mb high pressure center, and lower pressures near the
Panama/Colombia border, is maintaining a fresh ENE to E trade
wind pattern for the entire basin. Convergent trade winds are
triggering scattered rainshowers, from 15N northward from 80W
westward. Fresh to strong trade winds, and seas heights that
range from 8 feet to 12 feet, are in the central basin S of 16N
between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh trade wind, and sea
heights that range from 5 feet to 8 feet, in the E and SW parts
of the basin. Moderate trade winds, and sea heights that range
from 4 feet to 6 feet, cover the NW basin.

High pressure centered E of the Bahamas will continue to support
moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean, except for
locally strong winds in the central Caribbean. Trade winds in
the E basin will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds on Mon as
a cold front enters the SW N Atlantic waters. The tail of this
front will enter the far NW Caribbean by Mon and stall, bringing
fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan Channel through
Tue morning. The front is expected to weaken in the NW Caribbean
Sea by Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front passes through 31N35W 26N40W, 21N48W, and 23N57W. A
surface trough is to the northwest of the cold front, along
31N40W 27N45W 32N51W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 180 nm to the east and southeast of
the cold front from 22N northward, and within 90 nm to the
northwest of the cold front from 50W eastward. Isolated moderate
is from 24N northward, elsewhere, between the cold front and
52W.

Fresh to strong NE winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet
to 12 feet, are from the cold front northward, from 23N
northward between 34W and 55W. The 1023 mb high pressure center
is promoting light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range
from 4 feet to 6 feet, from the Greater Antilles to 31N between
62W and the Florida-Georgia coast. The Atlantic Ocean ridge,
more to the east, is promoting gentle to moderate wind speeds,
and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 9 feet in N to NE
swell, from 20N northward between the NW African coast and 55W.
Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE trade winds, and
sea heights that range from 6 feet to 9 feet, are in the
Tropical Atlantic Ocean from 20N southward.

High pressure centered E of the Bahamas will shift east through
tonight ahead of a strong cold front that will enter the NW
offshore waters by early Mon morning. Strong to near gale force
southerly winds will prevail through tonight N of the Bahamas.
Gale-force winds will begin early Mon morning, N of 30N and W of
78W along the front. Rough seas are also expected with the
front. Gale-force conditions will diminish late Mon afternoon as
the front moves away from the area. Building seas
associated with the front will subside to the east of the
Bahamas on Wed.

$$
mt/akr
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