[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front is moving across the central and SW Gulf of
Mexico this evening. Behind it, near-gale to gale winds have
developed off the SE Texas/NE Mexico coast and spread southward to
the Mexican waters near Veracruz. Midday altimeter data showed
seas rapidly building, with sea heights of 12-16 ft extending from
offshore of SE Texas to the Mexican coastal waters along 22N. The
front will continue moving SE and reach from SW Florida to the
central Yucatan Peninsula by Mon morning. Gales are expected to
continue across the Mexican near and offshore waters through
sunset and then remain near the Veracruz area through midnight
before diminishing below gale force. Winds and seas will subside
tonight through Mon from NW to SE across the basin, with the front
exiting the Gulf basin by sunset Mon.

.Western Atlantic Gale Warning...

The same cold front described above will exit the Georgia-S
Carolina coastline and move into the W Atlantic early Mon
morning. Expect gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 8
to 14 ft offshore from the N Florida-Georgia coast by dawn Mon
morning. Both winds and seas should begin to subside late Mon
afternoon, as the front moves E farther into the W Atlantic, and
away from the USA coastline.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at
the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details on both gale warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A weak monsoon trough remains over the African continent. An ITCZ
stretches from S of Cote Divoire at 04N04W through 05N37W to N of
Belem, Brazil at 03N49W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is seen from 02N to 06.5N between 05W and 37W, including the
coast of Liberia and Cote Divoire. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 00N to 06N between 37W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
a gale warning for the W Gulf.

A strong cold front stretches southwestward from Pensacola Bay,
Florida to the Mexican coast to the SE of Veracruz along 95.5W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near and up to
60 nm southeast of the front. Gale winds with strong gale-force
gusts and seas of 8 to 18 ft prevail near and behind the front.
Farther S and E, a surface ridge extends westward through the
Straits of Florida to the central Gulf. Fresh to locally strong
SW winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found over the central and NE
Gulf. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh winds and seas at 3
to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to move quickly
southeastward, reaching SW Florida to the central Yucatan
by Mon morning and then moving through the Straits of Florida and
across W Cuba late afternoon through evening. Strong gale
conditions across the NW and SW basin late this afternoon will
gradually become confined to the waters offshore of Veracruz
tonight. Seas will peak at 10 to 18 ft this evening through early
tonight across the waters W of 90W. Winds and seas will gradually
subside from NW to SE through Mon night. Light to gentle variable
winds are expected Tue, then increasing to gentle to moderate
Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight surface pressure gradient between the 1021 mb Bermuda
high pressure center, and lower pressures near the Panama/Colombia
border is maintaining a fresh ENE to E trade-wind pattern across
the entire basin. Convergent trades are triggering scattered
showers across the Gulf of Honduras and extend northward to near
20N. Fresh to strong trades and seas at 8 to 12 ft are in the
central basin S of 16N between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh
trades with seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen over the E and SW basin.
Moderate trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the NW basin.

For the forecast, high pressure centered S of the Bermuda is
forecast to begin to shift ENE on Mon as the Gulf of Mexico front
moves into the western Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trade winds
will continue tonight across the Caribbean, except for locally
strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, central Caribbean and
portions of the SW basin. Trade winds in the E basin will diminish
to gentle to moderate on Mon as a cold front enters the SW N
Atlantic waters. The tail of this front will enter the far NW
Caribbean Mon afternoon, supporting fresh NE winds and building
seas in the Yucatan channel through Tue morning, when the front
is forecast to weaken as a stationary front from western Cuba to
Belize.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
a gale warning for the W Atlantic.

A cold front curves southwestward a low SW of the Azores through
31N36W to 22N48W to 24N57W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are evident near and up to 90 nm SE of the front N of 24N. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in
the basin.

NE Fresh to strong winds with seas at 89 to 12 ft are noted near
and N of the cold front, N of 26N between 38W and 52W. A 1021 mb
high S of Bermuda is promoting light to gentle winds and seas of
4 to 6 ft from the Greater Antilles to 31N between 62W and the
Florida-Georgia coast. Farther E, the Atlantic ridge is promoting
gentle to moderate winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft in N to NE swell to
the N of 20N between the NW African coast and 55W. S of 20N,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE trades and seas at
6 to 9 ft prevail across the Tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Bermuda high pressure will weaken
and begin to move ENE this evening ahead of a strong cold front
that will enter the NW offshore waters late tonight into Mon.
Strong to near-gale force southerly winds will prevail this
evening to the N of the Bahamas ahead of the front, then reaching
gale force N of 30N behind the front early on Mon. Gale-force
conditions will diminish late Mon afternoon as the front moves
away from the area. Building seas associated with the front will
subside to the E of the Bahamas on Wed.

$$
Stripling
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