[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico. Behind it,
near-gale to gale winds have developed off the SE Texas/NE Mexico
coast. As the front continues to push southeastward, these winds
will reach strong-gale force and spread to the W central Gulf
near noon; and the Bay of Campeche by early this evening. Seas of
10 to 13 ft will quickly rise to between 13 and 16 ft this
afternoon. Winds and seas will begin to subside late tonight at
the NW Gulf, then Mon morning at the SW Gulf.

.Western Atlantic Gale Warning...

The same cold front described above will exit the Georgia-S
Carolina coastline and move into the W Atlantic early Mon
morning. Expect gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 8
to 14 ft offshore from the N Florida-Georgia coast by dawn Mon
morning. Both winds and seas should begin to subside late Mon
afternoon, as the front moves E farther into the W Atlantic, and
away from the USA coastline.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at
the website...https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details on both gale warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A weak monsoon trough remains over the African continent. An ITCZ
stretches from S of Cote Divoire at 04N03W through 04N25W to N of
Belem, Brazil at 03N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is seen from 02N to 07N between 03W and 48W, including the coast
of Liberia and Cote Divoire.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
a gale warning for the W Gulf.

A strong cold front stretches southwestward from near New Orleans
to near La Pesca, Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring near and up to 60 nm southeast of the front. Gale winds
with strong-gale gusts and seas at 11 to 13 ft are present near
and behind the front. Farther S and E, a surface ridge extends
southwestward from S Florida through the Bay of Campeche to S
Mexico. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW winds and seas
of 7 to 10 ft are found over the W central and N central Gulf.
Gentle to moderate with locally fresh winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft
prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the strong cold front over the NW Gulf is
forecast to move quickly southeastward, reaching E of the Gulf by
Mon morning. Strong gale conditions are expected to spread across
the NW and SW basin today. Winds and seas associated with the
front will gradually subside through Mon night. Light to gentle
variable winds are expected Tue, then increasing to gentle to
moderate Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight surface pressure gradient between the Atlantic Ocean 1022
mb high pressure center, and lower pressures near the
Panama/Colombia border is maintaining a ENE to E trade-wind
pattern across the entire basin. Convergent trades are triggering
scattered showers for the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong
trades and seas at 8 to 11 ft are in the central basin between 72W
and 80W. Moderate to fresh trades with seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen
over the E and SW basin. Moderate trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft
prevail for the NW basin.

For the forecast, high pressure centered E of the Bahamas is
forecast to remain nearly-stationary today, supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds across the Caribbean, except for locally strong
winds in the Gulf of Honduras, central Caribbean and portions of
the SW basin. Trade winds in the E basin will diminish to gentle
to moderate on Mon as a cold front enters the SW N Atlantic
waters. The tail of this front will enter the far NW Caribbean Mon
morning, supporting fresh NE winds and building seas in the
Yucatan channel through Tue morning when the front is forecast to
weaken as a stationary front from western Cuba to Belize.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
a gale warning for the W Atlantic.

A cold front curves southwestward a low SW of the Azores across
31N38W through 24N44W to 26N57W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are evident near and up to 80 nm SE of the front W
of 44W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
convection in the basin.

Moderate to fresh winds with seas at 8 to 11 ft are noted near and N
of the cold front, N of 26N between 35W and 55W. A 1022 mb high E
of the Bahamas is promoting light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to
6 ft from the Greater Antilles to 31N between 62W and the
Florida-Georgia coast. Farther E, the Atlantic ridge is promoting
gentle to moderate winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft N of 20N between
the NW African coast and 55W. S of 20N, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh NE to SE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail for
the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure centered E of the
Bahamas will remain nearly-stationary today. The high pressure
will weaken and move E this evening ahead of a strong cold front
that will enter the NW offshore waters late tonight into Mon.
Strong to near-gale force southerly winds will prevail today to
the N of the Bahamas ahead of the front, then reaching gale force
N of 30N early on Mon. Gale-force conditions will diminish late
Mon afternoon as the front moves away from the area. Building seas
associated with the front will subside to the E of the Bahamas on
Wed.

$$

Chan
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