[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 07N11W and extends to 06N18W. The ITCZ stretches
from 06N18W to 03N35W to 01N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted N of these features, S of 8N, and E of
41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The strong subtropical ridge centered north of Bermuda extends
southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Low-level convergence is
resulting in scattered moderate convection with a 90 nm radius of
26N89W and within 120 nm of the upper Texas and SW Louisiana
coasts. Fog is likely restricting visibility in nearshore waters
off the upper Texas and SW Louisiana coasts.
The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure
and lower pressures over Texas sustain fresh SE winds over much of
the NW and north-central Gulf waters. Seas in this area are 7 to
9 ft. Moderate to fresh mainly SE winds prevail elsewhere, with
seas of 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the fresh winds over the NW and north-central
Gulf will increase to locally strong and propagate into the NE
Gulf by tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh east to southeast
winds will prevail today. The cold front will move E across the
northern Gulf into Sat night. In advance of the front, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to move from west to east across the
northern Gulf through Fri night. Gentle to moderate southerly flow
will become established over most of the Gulf Sat night and Sun.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE to S flow is likely to return to
the Gulf Sun night through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1031 mb high pressure is positioned north of Bermuda and
extends southward into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly
tranquil weather conditions, with no significant convection over
the basin. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in northern South America results in fresh to strong
easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these
waters are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas
of 4-7 ft are prevalent in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft are found in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the
central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, through
tonight. Fresh to strong winds are likely to pulse in the
Windward Passage tonight. Trade winds will diminish some this
weekend, except within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, where fresh
to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse at nights and into
the early mornings. East swell will continue to affect the
tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Most of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by ridging, allowing
for generally tranquil weather conditions. However, a weak cold
front extends from 31N45W to 28N58W, where it transitions to a
stationary front and continues W to 65W. Convection previously
associated with this front has diminished overnight. Moderate to
fresh NE-E winds are evident behind the front, along with seas of
6-8 ft. To the W, a surface trough extends from 29N72W SW into the
NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection associated with this feature
is confined to waters NE of the Bahamas. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present north of the
trough axis. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and
seas of 4-7 ft are occurring between SE Bahamas and Hispaniola.

The broad ridge over the tropical Atlantic supports moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds south of 25N and between the SE
Bahamas and 25W. Seas in area described are 6-10 ft, with the
highest seas occurring near 12N41W. Over the far eastern Atlantic,
a 1013 mb low pressure system is located near 19N19W and a
surface trough extends northward to 27N17W. Scattered moderate
convection noted from 22N to 26N and east of 19W due to an upper
level low interacting with the surface features in the area. Fresh
to strong NE to E winds are occurring N of 18N and E of 25W. In
the rest of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the nearly stationary front along 28W
E of 65W will dissipate by tonight. Similarly, a surface trough
over the NW Bahamas will dissipate as it drifts NW today. Another
cold front will move off the Georgia and northern Florida coast by
Sun. Fresh to strong SW to W winds just ahead of the front should
be confined to areas north of 29N. Large E swell east of 67W and
south of 25N will continue through today before subsiding.

$$
KONARIK
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