[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301705
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Dec 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 05N09W and extends to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N23W to 03N32W to 01N43W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along these features south of 09N, and east of 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong subtropical ridge centered north of Bermuda extends
southwestward into the eastern part of the basin. As of 15Z, a
weak cold front is forming as it moves into the northwestern
Gulf off the Texas Coast from the Louisiana/Texas border to near
Brownsville, Texas. Low-level convergence ahead of the front is
resulting in scattered moderate convection north of 26N between
83W and 93W. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned
high pressure and the developing front is allowing for fresh SE
to S winds over much of the north-central Gulf waters Seas in
this area are 6 to 8 ft. With the exception of SW winds just
ahead of the front and NE winds behind the front, mainly
moderate to fresh SE winds prevail elsewhere, along with seas of
4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong S winds prevail over
the central Gulf, ahead of a weak cold front that is forecast to
form over the western Gulf by this afternoon. The cold front
will move E across the northern Gulf into Sat night. An area of
thunderstorms, currently extending offshore SE Louisiana to 26N,
will continue moving eastward across the northern Gulf through
tonight. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong, with
frequent lightning. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will
become established over most of the Gulf Sat night and Sun.
Fresh to strong SE to S flow is likely to return to the Gulf Sun
night through Tue night, ahead of the next cold front, which
should move off the Texas coast on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1031 mb high pressure is positioned north of Bermuda and
extends southward into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly
tranquil weather conditions, with no significant convection over
the basin. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in northern South America is producing fresh to strong
E trade winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are
7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh E breezes and seas of 4 to 7 ft are
prevalent in the eastern and northwestern Caribbean. Moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are found in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the
central Caribbean, with fresh winds over the E Caribbean, and
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere through tonight. Fresh to
strong winds are likely to pulse in the Windward Passage
tonight. Trade winds will diminish some this weekend, except
within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, where fresh to strong NE
to E winds will continue to pulse at night and into the early
mornings. East swell will continue to affect the tropical
Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through this evening
before subsiding through Sat. Looking ahead to early next week,
fresh to strong winds are likely to pulse S of Hispaniola, in
the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Most of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by ridging, allowing
for generally tranquil weather conditions across most of the
basin. However, a weak cold front extends from 31N41W to 28N59W,
where it transitions to a stationary front and continues to
29N65W. Only notable convection associated with this feature is
scattered showers found within 50 nm north of the stationary
front between 61W and 65W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are
evident on a recent scatterometer pass behind the front, along
with seas of 6 to 8 ft. To the west, a surface trough extends
across the northern Bahamas from 30N76W to 25N79W. Scattered
moderate convection associated with this feature is confined to
waters northeast of the Bahamas west of 70W. Moderate E winds
are present north of the trough axis with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

Broad ridging over the tropical Atlantic supports moderate to
locally fresh E trades south of 25N, between the southeast
Bahamas and 25W. Seas in this area are generally 6 to 9 ft. Over
the far eastern Atlantic, a 1018 mb low pressure system is
located near 19N20W with an attendant surface trough extending
northward to 28N21W. Scattered moderate convection noted east of
17W between 25N to 28N due to an upper level low interacting
with the surface features in the area. Fresh to strong E to NE
winds are occurring north of 22N and east of 20W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will
dissipate on Sat. The surface trough over the NW Bahamas will
dissipate this afternoon as it drifts NW. Another cold front
will move off the Georgia and northern Florida coasts by early
Sun. Fresh to strong SW to W winds just ahead of the front
should be confined to areas north of 29N. Large E swell east of
67W and south of 25N will continue through today before
gradually subsiding tonight through Sat. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage
during the late afternoons and nights.

$$
Nepaul
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