[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Dec 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 07N11W and extends to 06N19W. The ITCZ stretches from
06N19W to 02N35W to 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from south of 10N and east of 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The strong subtropical ridge north of Bermuda extends
southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Low-level convergence
results in a few showers near 26N89W and within 100 nm of the NE
Texas and SW Louisiana coasts. Fairly tranquil weather conditions
prevail in the rest of the Gulf. Dense fog advisory is in effect
for the northern Gulf waters, especially from NE Texas to south-
central Louisiana and within 20 nm of the coast. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and lower
pressures over Texas sustain fresh to strong SE-S winds in the NW
Gulf waters, especially north of 27N and west of 93W. Seas in
these waters are 7-9 ft. Moderate to fresh SE breezes and seas of
3-7 ft are prevalent in the rest of the basin north of 20N.
Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail south of 20N.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong southerly winds continue over
the NW Gulf. Winds there will diminish on Fri as a weak cold
front moves into the western Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
east to southeast winds will prevail into Fri, except for fresh to
strong in the NE Gulf Fri. The cold front will move E across the
northern Gulf through Sat. In advance of the front, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to move from west to east across the
northern Gulf through Fri night. Gentle to moderate southerly
flow will become established over most of the Gulf Sat night and
Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE to S flow is likely to
return to the Gulf Sun night into through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1032 mb high pressure is positioned north of Bermuda and extends
southward into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions. The modest pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressures in northern South America result in fresh to
strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, including
the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate
to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 4-7 ft are prevalent in the
eastern and NW Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3
ft are found in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, a surface trough over the SE Bahamas will move
northwestward tonight, allowing a high pressure ridge north of
the region to strengthen. As a result, trade winds across the
central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong through Fri
night, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Fresh to strong
winds may pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras Fri
night. Trade winds will diminish again to moderate to fresh across
the basin for the weekend, except within 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia, where fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to
pulse at night and into the early mornings. East swell will
continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean
waters into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Most of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by ridging, allowing
for generally tranquil weather conditions. However, a cold front
extends from 31N50W to 29N59W, where it transitions into a
stationary front to 29N67W. A few weak showers are noted near the
these boundaries. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are evident behind
the frontal boundaries, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Farther west, a
surface trough extends from 28N71W to 24N79W and isolated showers
are observed near this feature. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present north of the trough axis.
Fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft are
occurring between SE Bahamas and Hispaniola.

The broad ridge over the tropical Atlantic supports moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds south of 26N and between the SE
Bahamas and 20W. Seas in area described are 6-10 ft, with the
highest seas occurring near 12N41W. Over the far eastern
Atlantic, a 1013 mb low pressure system is located near 19N19W and
a surface trough extends northward to 27N17W. Showers are noted
from 22N to 26N and east of 19W due to an upper level low
interacting with the surface features in the area. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to near gale-
force NE-E winds are occurring north of 15N and east of 30W. Seas
in these waters are 6-10 ft. In the rest of the tropical
Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front from 29N55W to 27N65W is
stalling tonight. A surface trough extends across the central
Bahamas. The stalled front will dissipate Fri, as will the trough.
Another cold front is forecast to move off the Georgia and
northern Florida coast Sat night. Fresh to strong SW to W winds
just ahead of the front should be confined to areas north of 29N.
Large E swell east of 68W and south of 25N will continue through
Fri before subsiding.

$$
DELGADO
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