[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292130
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Dec 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N14W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 11W and 20W,
and from 00N to 07N between 20W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong
winds prevail over the NW Gulf with moderate to fresh winds
elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in
the NW Gulf, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds continue over
the western Gulf. Winds there will diminish on Fri as a weak cold
front moves into the western Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
east to southeast winds will prevail into Fri, except for fresh
to strong in the NE Gulf on Fri. The cold front should stall from
the Florida Panhandle to Tampico, Mexico Sat, then dissipate Sat
night. In advance of the front, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to move from west to east across the northern Gulf
tonight through Fri night. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will
become established over most of the Gulf Sat night and Sun.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE to S flow is likely to return
to the Gulf Sun night into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range
over the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will maintain
moderate to fresh winds across the eastern and southwestern
Caribbean, and fresh winds in the central Caribbean, through
today. A surface trough over the SE Bahamas will move
northwestward tonight, allowing the ridge north of the region to
strengthen. As a result, trade winds across the central Caribbean
will increase to fresh to strong tonight through Fri night. Fresh
to strong winds may pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of
Honduras Fri night. Trade winds will diminish again to moderate to
fresh across the basin for the weekend, except within 90 nm of
the coast of Colombia, where fresh to strong NE to E winds will
continue to pulse at night and into the early mornings. East swell
will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern
Caribbean waters into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N54W to 28N65W. A surface trough
extends across the central Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail west of 60W with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Light to
gentle winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are found N of 25N between 35W
and 60W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft, prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move east into
Fri, stall Fri night in the far NE waters, then dissipate over
the weekend. The surface trough will drift NW through early Fri
before dissipating. Another cold front is forecast to move off
the Georgia and northern Florida coast Sat night. Fresh to strong
SW to W winds just ahead of the front should be confined to
areas north of 29N. Large E swell east of 68W and south of 25N
will continue through Fri before subsiding.

$$
AL
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