[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Dec 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ is along 02N at the Prime Meridian, continuing to 02N09W
to 03N36W to 02N44W. Scattered moderate is noted S of 07N between
15W and 25W, from 06N to 09N between 34W and 39W, and from 04N to
07N between 41W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak trough in the northern Gulf has dissipated overnight. The
remaining trough extends from 24N96W to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Scattered moderate convection is noted to the SW of this trough.
Winds are mainly gentle to moderate, with locally fresh winds
occurring in the NW Gulf and in and near the Florida Straits. Seas
are 2 to 4 ft, with localized 5 ft seas in the Florida Straits
and Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the area will slide
eastward and dissipate by tonight. This will allow for fresh to
strong southerly winds to set up in the NW Gulf. Winds will
diminish by Fri as a weak cold front approaches the NW Gulf coast.
Elsewhere, moderate east winds will become mostly fresh east to
southeast winds, except for fresh to locally strong southerly
winds in the west- central and SW Gulf through Fri. The weak cold
front should stall over the northern and western Gulf Fri, then
dissipate into Sat night. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will
become established over most of the Gulf Sun and Sun night.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

The shear line previously over the NW Caribbean has dissipated
overnight, but scattered moderate convection remains. A surface
trough is from Haiti to 24N75W, but no significant convection is
associated with it. Moderate to fresh winds span the entire
Caribbean Sea. Seas heights are generally 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to
the northern Caribbean through the weekend. This will continue to
provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central,
and southwestern Caribbean. Locally strong winds will pulse at
times S of Hispaniola and N of Colombia. East swell will continue
to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters
through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is noted from near Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos
and into the windward passage. N of 25N, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm E and SE of the
front. Fresh NE winds are ongoing behind the front, with seas of 6
to 8 ft. Winds are mainly moderate and SE ahead of the front,
except for areas S of 23N and W of 70W, where a broad area of
fresh to strong trades prevail. Seas across this entire area of
higher winds are 8 to 13 ft. These higher winds are being
supported by building high pressure, from a 1032 mb center near
32N40W.

Farther east, 1014 mb low pressure is centered midway between the
Canary Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands. A trough extends SW
from the low to the Cabo Verde Islands, then continue NW to
20N35W. Winds N and W of the trough, to 29N, are strong. Scattered
moderate convection is ongoing between the low and the coast of
mainland Africa. Seas in the area of strong winds are 12 to 14 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, The northern half of the
aforementioned cold front will continue east into the end of the
weak, while the southern half will devolve into a surface trough
tonight and dissipate Thu. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will
prevail behind the front through Thu. Another cold front is
forecast to move off the Georgia coast Sun and Sun night. A cold
front is likely to reach the Georgia coast Sun and Sun night.
Large E swell east of 65W and south of 26N will slowly subside
through Fri.

$$
KONARIK
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