[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Dec 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ is along 02N at the Prime Meridian, 02N07W 03N11W
03N30W 03N42W 02N44W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 07N southward between 15W and 25W, from
05N to 09N between 34W and 39W, and from 04N to 07N between 41W
and 48W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder
of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

One surface trough is along 25N85W to the coast of Alabama.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N
northward between 84W and 89W.

A second surface trough is from the southern Yucatan Peninsula,
to 22N95W, to 27N91W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 28N southward from 90W westward.

Moderate to fresh winds are from the second surface trough
westward. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 5 feet from the second surface trough
westward, and near the Yucatan Channel. The sea heights range
from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure over the area will slide eastward and weaken into
Wed night. This will allow for fresh to strong southerly winds
to set up in the NW Gulf. Winds will diminish Thu night as a
weak cold front approaches the NW Gulf coast. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate northeast winds will become mostly fresh east to
southeast winds, except for fresh southerly winds in the west
central and SW Gulf through Fri. The weak cold front is expected
to move into the NW Gulf Fri, then become stationary and weaken
through Sat night. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will become
established over most of the Gulf Sun and Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 24N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, through
the Windward Passage, to 14N76W in the Caribbean Sea. A shear
line is along 21N78W in SE Cuba, to NE coastal Honduras.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the
west and northwest of the line that runs from 17N70W, to the
coast of Panama along 78W.

Moderate to fresh winds span the entire Caribbean Sea. The sea
heights range from 5 feet to 8 feet in the NW corner of the
area. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the
remainder of the area.

Surface ridging N of the region will extend to the northern
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. This will continue to provide
moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central, and
southwestern Caribbean. Locally strong winds will pulse at times
S of Hispaniola and N of Colombia. East swell will continue to
affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters
into Thu night.
A shear line extends from east-central Cuba to the coast of NE
Honduras. Mostly fresh north to northeast winds are behind the
shear line. These winds are expected to continue through early
Wed as the shear line gradually weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N67W, to 26N74W, to Cuba near
21N78W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 120 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front from
25N northward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 20N northward from 64W westward.
Moderate to fresh winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet
to 5 feet, are from the cold front
westward. Moderate to fresh winds are between 60W and the cold
front. The exception is strong winds from 20N southward. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet from 26N northward between
60W and the cold front. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10
feet from 26N southward. Fresh to strong winds, and sea heights
that range from 8 feet to 12 feet, are from 60W eastward.

A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 33N39W. A 1015 mb low
pressure center is near 23N20W. A surface trough curves away
from the 1015 mb low pressure center, to 25N20W 23N18W 20N20W
18N26W 20N30W 23N32W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is
between the 1015 mb low pressure center and surface trough, and
the western Atlantic Ocean cold front. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is between the 1015 mb low pressure
center and Africa.

A cold front stretches from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and into
eastern Cuba. This front will stall from SE of Bermuda to the
Turks and Caicos and into the Windward Passage Wed, then weaken
and dissipate through the end of the week. Fresh NE winds will
prevail behind the front into Thu. A cold front is likely to
reach the Georgia coast Sun and Sun night. Large E swell east of
65W and south of 26N will slowly subside through late week.

$$
mt/sk
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