[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Dec 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ crosses the Prime Meridian at 05N, continuing through
05N20W to 02N46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
03N to 08N, between 15W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1029 mb
high in North Carolina. Winds are generally moderate from the S-
SE across the basin with 2-4 ft seas. Fresh southerly winds are
noted in the NW Gulf with fresh easterlies in the Florida
Straits. Scattered weak convection is observed in the NE Gulf
from 25N to 30N, between 84W and 89W.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the area will slide
eastward and dissipate by tonight. This will allow for fresh to
strong southerly winds to set up in the western Gulf, beginning
this afternoon. Winds will diminish by Fri as a weak cold front
approaches the NW Gulf coast. Elsewhere, moderate east to
southeast winds over the eastern Gulf will become mostly fresh
Thu and fresh to strong southeast on Fri. The weak cold front
should stall over the northern and western Gulf Fri, then
dissipate into Sat night. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will
become established over most of the Gulf Sat night and Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant mid-level moisture is supporting scattered moderate
convection in the NW Caribbean. The gradient between subtropical
high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is
supporting fresh easterly winds across the majority of the
basin. Locally strong winds are noted offshore Colombia, Haiti
and the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are generally 5-7 ft, with 8 ft
easterly swell possible in the Anegada Passage and other
Atlantic Passages between the Leeward Islands. Rough seas to 12
ft are found east of these Islands in the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging N of the region will
maintain moderate to fresh winds across the eastern, central,
and southwestern Caribbean through Thu. Locally strong winds
will pulse at times S of Hispaniola and N of Colombia. A cold
front north of the basin will weaken, allowing the ridge north
of the region to strengthen. As a result, trade winds across the
central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Thu night
through Fri. Trade winds will diminish again to moderate to
fresh across the basin for the weekend. East swell will continue
to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters
through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N65W to the
SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of
the front, north of 22N and west of 63W. Behind the front, winds
are moderate to fresh from the NE with 6-8 ft seas. Ahead of the
front, winds are moderate from the SW with 7-9 ft seas. The
central Atlantic is dominated by a relatively tight gradient
between a 1033 mb high pressure centered near 33N40W and lower
pressure along the ITCZ. This pattern is supporting fresh to
strong easterlies from 10N to 25N, between 30W and 55W. Seas are
10-13 ft in this area. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient
between subtropical high pressure and a 1012 mb low near 21N20W
is supporting strong NE winds extending roughly 420 nm north of
the low. Sea heights reach 14 ft in this area. A few
thunderstorms are noted near the low-pressure center.

For the forecast W of 55W, the northern half of the cold front
will continue east into the end of the week, while the southern
half will devolve into a surface trough tonight that moves
northward on Thu before dissipating Fri. Fresh NE winds will
prevail behind the front through Thu. Another cold front is
forecast to move off the Georgia coast Sun and Sun night. Large
E swell east of 65W and south of 25N will slowly subside through
Fri.

$$
Flynn
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