[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260514
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Dec 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The METEO-FRANCE forecast consists of a gale-force wind
warning for the three marine zones: in IRVING and in MADEIRA
from 30N to 35N between 13W and 35W, and in METEOR from 25N
to 30N between 22W and 35W. Expect the gale-force winds in
each area, from 26/1800 UTC until 27/0000 UTC. Please,
read the latest high seas forecast, that is issued by
METEO-FRANCE, at the website: gmdss.org/II.html, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along
06N, to 05N05W, through the southern coastal sections of
Liberia, to 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from 06N13W, to
06N22W and 01N49W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong is within 90 nm to the north of the ITCZ between
36W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from
10N southward from 60W eastward, and from 10N to 13N
between 45W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 23N97W, to the eastern sections
of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico. The anchor for the anticyclonic wind flow is
the 1029 mb southern Louisiana high pressure center.

Widely scattered to scattered moderate precipitation covers
much of the area. Strong to near gale-force winds, and sea
heights that range from 10 feet to 14 feet, are in the SW
corner. Strong winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet
to 11 feet, are elsewhere in the SW quadrant of the Gulf of
Mexico, and in the south central sections of the Gulf. The
sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of
the areas that are from 26N southward. The sea heights
range from 1 foot to 3 feet from 26N northward.

Gales have ended offshore Veracruz, Mexico, this evening, but
strong NW winds will prevail tonight. Very rough to high seas
will diminish gradually through Mon. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas will settle over the whole
basin by late Mon and continue into midweek. Fresh S winds will
increase in the NW Gulf late this week, ahead of the next cold
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through 31N65W to 27N70W, through the
central Bahamas near 24N76W, through central Cuba near 22N79W,
to 19N86W, to north central Honduras near 15N87W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is to the northwest of the
line that runs from NE Honduras to the Windward Passage.

Fresh to strong winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to
9 feet, are from the front westward. Fresh to locally strong
winds are from 80W eastward. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 17N
southward, and they range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere.

Surface ridging N of the region will extend to the northern
Caribbean through the middle of the week. This will
continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the
eastern, central, and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-gale
E winds will persist over NW Colombia offshore waters into Sat.
E swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the
eastern Caribbean waters into Wed night. A stationary front
extends from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras with fresh to
strong winds and rough seas behind it. The front will linger in
this area into Tue. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
prevail behind the front into Mon night, when conditions will
slowly improve as the front weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind conditions that are forecast for three
METEO-FRANCE
marine zones.

A stationary front passes through 31N65W to 27N70W, through the
central Bahamas near 24N76W, through central Cuba near 22N79W,
to 19N86W, to north central Honduras near 15N87W. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong is
to the northwest of the line that runs from the Windward Passage
beyond 31N56W. Moderate NW winds, and sea heights that range
from 5 feet to 7 feet, are from the front northwestward. Gentle
to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8
feet, are from the front eastward to 60W.

A 1035 mb high pressure center is near 35N39W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N
northward between the cold front and the stationary front. The
surface pressure gradient, that is between the 1035 mb high
pressure center, and comparatively lower surface pressures that
are near the ITCZ, is supporting fresh to strong trade winds,
and sea heights that range from 9 feet to 12 feet, from 05N to
25N between 30W and 60W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front extends from a 1016 mb
31N13W low pressure center, to 22N25W. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 21N northward from 27W
eastward. Precipitation: scattered moderate is from 26N
northward from 23W eastward. Fresh to strong N to NW winds are
behind the front. Moderate to fresh SW winds are to the east of
the front. The sea heights range from 11 feet to 14 feet to the
north of the front.

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the
central Bahamas to central Cuba near 23N79W. Winds and seas
continue to diminish behind the front. The front will linger
through midweek through this area. Fresh winds could develop
behind the front by midweek as it finally pushes eastward
out of the area. Meanwhile, large swell E of 60W and S of 25N
will subside slowly through midweek.

$$
mt/sk
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