[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Dec 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: Gale force winds and
very seas will continue across the Veracruz offshore waters
through this evening. Winds over the SW Gulf will diminish
overnight and become gentle to moderate by Mon with seas
subsiding below 12 ft by Mon morning.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for Meteor, S of 20N
between 22 and 35W. Gales are forecast to begin Monday. Please
read the latest high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France at
website gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 04N07W to 05N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N17W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 01N to 07N between 07W and 23W, and from 03N to
08N, between 25W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the gale-warning in
effect for the Veracruz offshore waters.

Outside of the gale force winds, high pressure extends across
the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1033 mb high in south Texas. A
surface trough extends across the SW Gulf. Scattered showers are
noted across much of the basin. Fresh to strong winds are noted
elsewhere over the SW Gulf, with moderate to fresh winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 10-14 ft range over the SW Gulf, and
7-10 ft elsewhere S of 24N and west of 90W. Seas of 4-7 ft are
cover the remainder of the waters S of 26N, with seas of 1-3 ft N
of 26N.

For the forecast, gale-force NW winds will prevail through the
evening hours over the Veracruz offshore waters in the wake of a
front that currently extends SE of the basin. Very rough to high
seas are expected in this area. Moderate to fresh N winds prevail
elsewhere across most of the Gulf waters. Strong winds over the
SW Gulf of Mexico will diminish by Mon morning as well as seas
dropping below 12 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will settle over the whole basin by late Mon and
continue through midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is observed NW of the
front. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 7-9 ft are found west of
the front. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted east of 80W,
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere west of 80W. Seas are in
the 6-8 ft range s of 17N, and 3-5 ft N of 17N.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to
the northern Caribbean through the middle of next week. This
will continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the
eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-gale E
winds will persist over NW Colombia offshore waters through Fri
night. E swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and
the eastern Caribbean waters through Wed. A stationary front
extends from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras with fresh to
strong winds and rough seas following it. The front will linger
in this area through Tue. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas
will prevail behind the front through Mon night, when conditions
will slowly improve as the front weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see above for more on a gale warning over the eastern
Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N66W through the central
Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered showers are observed within
300 nm west of the front. Moderate NW winds and 5-7 ft seas are
observed NW of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are E of the
front to 60W, with seas in the 6-8 ft range.

High pressure dominates the central Atlantic, anchored by a 1034
mb high near 35N39W. The gradient between this feature and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds across the Atlantic from 05N to 25N between
30W and 60W. Seas are 9-12 ft in this area. In the eastern
Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N15W to 21N27W. Fresh to
strong N to NW winds are noted behind the front with moderate to
fresh SW winds ahead of the front. Seas are 11-14 ft north of
the front.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from
31N66W to the Bahamas to central Cuba near 23N79W. Moderate W to
NW winds are occurring behind the front with subsiding seas. The
front will linger through midweek through this area. Winds across
the waters W of 70W will become light to gentle by Mon with
moderate seas. Fresh winds could develop behind the stationary
front by midweek as the front finally pushes eastward out of the
area. Meanwhile, large swell E of 60W will slowly subside through
midweek.

$$
AL
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