[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Dec 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: The strong cold front
that moved across the Gulf remains draped over the NW Caribbean.
Meanwhile, gale force winds and very rough to high seas will
continue across the Veracruz offshore waters through this
evening. Winds over the SW Gulf will diminish overnight and
become gentle to moderate by Mon with seas dropping below 12 ft
by Mon morning.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends along the northern Gulf of Guinea to
the eastern Atlantic near 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W
to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to
07N, between 10W and 26W. Similar convection is also observed
from 03N to 08N, between 36W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the gale-warning in
effect for the Veracruz offshore waters.

High pressure extends across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a
1033 mb high in south Texas. Scattered showers are noted across
the basin, particularly in the Bay of Campeche. Northerly winds
are moderate to fresh across the northern half of the basin with
strong winds south of 25N. Near gale to gale conditions persist
along the Mexican coast. Maximum sea heights are 12-15 ft near
the gale force winds offshore Veracruz. Otherwise seas are 9-12
ft in the Bay of Campeche, 6-9 ft in the remainder of the
southern Gulf, and 3-6 ft in the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, gale-force NW winds continue over the Veracruz
offshore waters in the wake of a front that currently extends SE
of the basin. Very rough to high seas are expected in this area.
Moderate to fresh N winds prevail elsewhere across most of the
Gulf waters. These winds will continue to diminish today. The
gale-force winds across Veracruz will persist through this
evening. Strong winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico will end by Mon
morning as well as seas dropping below 12 ft. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas will settle over the Gulf by
Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is draped across the NW Caribbean from
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate
convection is observed in the NW Caribbean from 17N to 22N
between 79W and 87W. Northwest of the front, winds are fresh to
strong from the NE with seas to 10 ft in the Yucatan Channel.
Strong NE winds prevail in the NW Colombian offshore waters,
where seas are 8-10 ft. The remainder of the basin is dominated
by moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas of 6-8 ft.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to
the northern Caribbean through the middle of next week. This
will continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across
the eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-
gale E winds will persist over NW Colombia offshore waters
through Thu night. E swell will continue to affect the tropical
Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through Wed. A
stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras with fresh to strong winds and rough seas following it.
The front will linger in this area through Tue. Fresh to strong
winds and rough seas will prevail behind the front through Mon
night, when conditions will slowly improve as the front weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N66W through the central
Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered showers are observed within
120 nm of the front. Moderate NW winds and 7-10 ft seas are
observed NW of the front. Moderate S winds and 6-9 ft seas are
observed SE of the front.

High pressure dominates the central Atlantic, anchored by a 1035
mb high near 35N41W. The gradient between this feature and lower
pressure along the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade
winds across the Atlantic, from 05N to 25N, between 30W and 60W.
Seas are 9-12 ft in this area. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold
front extends from 31N16W to 21N34W.  Fresh NW winds are noted
behind the front with moderate SW winds ahead. Seas are 11-14 ft
north of the front.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from 31N66W to the
Bahamas to central Cuba near 23N79W. Moderate W to NW winds are
occurring behind the front with subsiding seas. The front will
linger through midweek in this area. Winds across the waters W
of 70W will become light to gentle by Mon with moderate seas.
Fresh winds could develop behind the stationary front by midweek
as the front finally pushes eastward out of the area. Meanwhile,
large swell E of 60W will slowly subside through the next week.

$$
Flynn
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