[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Dec 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: The strong cold front
that moved across the Gulf remains draped over the NW Caribbean.
Meanwhile, gale force winds and very rough to high seas will
continue across the Veracruz offshore waters through this evening.
Winds over the SW Gulf will diminish overnight and become gentle
to moderate by Mon with seas dropping below 12 ft by Mon morning.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 04N10W to 04N18W.
The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to 02N30W to 01N42W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 06W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the gale-warning in
effect for the Veracruz offshore waters.

High pressure extends across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1034
mb high in central Texas. Showers are quickly streaming across the
southern Gulf and into Florida. Moderate to fresh N winds prevail
across most of the Gulf of Mexico. Seas range 4-6 ft across the
northern Gulf with seas to 8 ft over the southern Gulf. Strong to
gale- force winds continue over the SW Gulf near Veracruz with
strong N to NE winds in the SE Bay of Campeche and northern
Yucatan. Seas range 8 to 15 ft over the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, gale-force NW winds continue over the Veracruz
offshore waters in the wake of a front that currently extends SE
of the basin. Very rough to high seas are expected in this area.
Moderate to fresh N winds prevail elsewhere across most of the
Gulf waters. These winds will continue to diminish today. The
gale- force winds across Veracruz will persist through this
evening. Strong winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico will end by Mon
morning as well as seas dropping below 12 ft. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas will settle over the Gulf by
Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is draped across the NW Caribbean from central
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is
east of the front from 16N to 20N between 79W and 86W along with
gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas. Behind the
front, fresh to strong N to NE winds are noted by overnight
scatterometer data. Seas are up to 10 ft in the Yucatan Channel.
Farther south, strong to near gale- force winds prevail in the
south- central Caribbean and the NW Colombia offshore waters, in
addition to the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas range 8-11 ft. In the
eastern Caribbean, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail with seas
to 8 ft.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to
the northern Caribbean through the middle of next week. This will
continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the
eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-gale E
winds will persist over NW Colombia offshore waters through Thu
night. NE and E swell will continue to affect the tropical
Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through Wed. A
stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
with fresh to strong winds and rough seas following it. The front
will linger in this area through Tue. Fresh to strong winds and
rough seas will prevail behind the front through Mon night, when
conditions will slowly improve as the front weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N67W to the Bahamas to central
Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ahead of
the front N of 24N and W of 59W. Showers are also noted behind to
front moving off the Florida coast and over the northern Bahamas.
Moderate to fresh W to NW winds prevail west of the front with
seas to 4-7 ft W of 77W and 8-10 ft between 77W and 70W. Ahead of
the front, moderate SW winds are noted.

High pressure extends over the central Atlantic anchored by a 1033
mb high near 36N42W. N of 26N, winds are moderate. S of 26N, fresh
to strong tradewinds prevail. A large area of swell covers the
central and tropical Atlantic waters. Seas range 8 to 13 ft
between 07N and 31N between 35W and 65W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front is approaching the Canary
Islands and extends from 31N17W to 25N26W. The tail-end of the
cold front is dissipating to 22N37W. Fresh to locally strong NW
winds are behind the front. Seas range 12 to 15 ft N of the front.
Gentle to moderate winds mostly prevail off the African coast with
seas to 8 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will linger through
midweek through this area. Winds across the waters W of 70W will
become light to gentle by Mon with moderate seas. Fresh winds
could develop behind the stationary front by midweek as the front
finally pushes eastward out of the area. Meanwhile, large swell E
of 60W will slowly subside through the next week.

$$
AReinhart
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