[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Dec 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The METEO-FRANCE forecast consists of a gale-force wind
warning for the three marine zones: in IRVING and in MADEIRA
from 30N to 35N between 13W and 35W, and in METEOR from 25N
to 30N between 22W and 35W. Expect the gale-force winds in
each area, from 26/1800 UTC until 27/0000 UTC. Please,
read the latest high seas forecast, that is issued by
METEO-FRANCE, at the website: gmdss.org/II.html, for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N to
06N13W. The ITCZ continues from 06N13W to 06N22W to 01N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along within 90 nm N of the
ITCZ between 36W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 23N97W to the Bay of Campeche.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the Bay of Campeche
as well as the Florida Straits, otherwise weak high pressure
centered just inland along the north-central Gulf coast is
dominating the basin and precluding significant convection.

Fresh NW winds are ongoing to the W of the surface trough, with
fresh NE winds in the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate mainly E winds prevail. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in
the Bay of Campeche, 4 to 7 ft elsewhere in the southern Gulf, and
1 to 3 ft in the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh NW winds and rough seas will diminish
offshore Veracruz, Mexico, today. Gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas will then settle over the entire basin
tonight and continue through Tue night. Fresh S winds will
increase to locally strong in the NW Gulf late this week, ahead of
the next cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the coast of
Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 18N and W of
78W in association with this boundary. Winds N and W of the front
are fresh to strong out of the NE, with seas of 8 to 10 ft.

Elsewhere across the basin, mainly fresh E winds dominate, with an
area of strong trades offshore Colombia, and locally strong trades
just S of Haiti. Seas are 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to
the northern Caribbean into late week. This will continue to
provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central,
and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-gale E winds will
persist over NW Colombia offshore waters through Sat. E swell will
continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern
Caribbean waters through Wed night. A stationary front will linger
in the NW Caribbean into Tue. Fresh to strong winds and rough
seas will prevail behind the front into tonight, when conditions
will slowly improve as the front weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force wind conditions that are forecast for three METEO-
FRANCE marine zones.

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda through the central
Bahamas and into central Cuba. A broad area of scattered moderate
convection is noted along and NW of this boundary, extending to
the Florida coast. Winds behind the front are gentle to moderate
out of the N, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Ahead of the front, winds
and seas gradually increase, with easterlies becoming fresh to
strong E of 60W, and seas in the area of fresh to strong winds
ranging from 8 to 12 ft.

A 1034 mb high pressure is centered near 35N37W. Farther east, low
pressure over the Canary Islands has an associated cold front that
extends to the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong NE winds are behind this
front to around 30W, with seas of 10 to 14 ft. It is behind the
front that the aforementioned gales are expected to form later
today in the far eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front in the NW
Tropical Atlantic will linger into midweek through this area,
before moving east as a cold front late this week. Fresh winds
could develop behind this cold front. Meanwhile, large swell E of
60W and S of 25N will slowly subside into late week.

$$
KONARIK
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