[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232231
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Dec 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm-Force Wind Warning: An Arctic cold front
continues moving SE across the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, and
extends from near Marco Island, Florida SW and across the eastern
Bay of Campeche and enters Mexico just W of Coatzacoalcos. A pre-
frontal trough is ahead of the front and stretches across the
Straits of Florida to the NW coast of Cuba. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm SE of the front. Strong to near
gale force N winds prevail across the entire Gulf behind the
front, with gales occurring N of 28N between the mouth of the
Mississippi River and the western Florida Panhandle, and gale to
storm force winds W of 93W and S of 24N. Buoy observations
indicate a large area of 15 to 20 ft seas, and likely higher,
behind the front, W of 92W and S of 25N. Buoy 42055 in the SW Gulf
is currently reporting 20 ft seas.

Widespread gale force NW to N winds and very high seas will
continue for most of the basin  through the early evening hours.
Gale-force winds will come to an end by this evening into tonight
for most of the Gulf with conditions slowly improving through the
weekend and into early next week. However, gale-force winds will
continue across the Veracruz offshore waters through Sunday night.
Offshore seas will peak from Tampico to Veracruz around 20 ft.

SW N Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: A cold front
stretches across the Atlantic from 31N76W to near Palm Beach,
Florida. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed ahead of the front
extending from the Straits of Florida to 31N73W. Scattered
thunderstorms are observed within 150 nm ahead of the pre-frontal
trough north of 25N. Strong to gale force NW winds and seas of 8
to 15 ft follow the front offshore of Florida, with gales
occurring N of 30N. The gale force winds will shift to the north
of the forecast area by tonight. Strong winds will diminish slowly
on Saturday with seas subsiding through Sunday.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland across the coastal sections of
Liberia near 05N08W. The ITCZ extends from 06N10W to 03.5N40W to
01.5N46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N to 08N between 30W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about the Storm Warning
and other dangerous conditions expected for the Gulf of Mexico.

In the far southeastern parts of the basin, ahead of the
aforementioned cold front, moderate SW to W winds prevail with
seas ranging 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, storm-force winds will diminish to gale- force
as the front stretches from the Florida Keys to the Yucatan by
this evening and then exit the basin tonight. Gale-force winds
will come to an end tonight for most of the Gulf with conditions
slowly improving through the weekend and into early next week.
However, gale-force winds will continue across the Veracruz
offshore waters through Sun night. Strong NE to N winds are
expected across the Bay of Campeche and offshore of Veracruz
through Mon morning as the front weakens across the NW Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail across the eastern and
central Caribbean with strong NE winds north of Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in the south- central Caribbean range
6 to 9 ft. Seas in the eastern basin range 4 to 7 ft. In the
northwestern Caribbean, light to gentle winds with seas to 4 ft
are noted. No significant convection is observed at this time, as
very stable atmospheric conditions prevail.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to
the northern Caribbean through the middle of next week. This will
continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the
eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong winds are
expected to continue for the Gulf of Venezuela and NW Colombia
offshore waters through Wed night. NE and E swell will continue to
affect the tropical Atlantic waters through Wed. The swell may
impact the E Caribbean late in the weekend into early next week. A
cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late tonight into early
Sat along with fresh to strong winds and rough seas. These
conditions will persist across this region through Mon night. The
front will reach from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan by Sat
morning, from eastern Cuba to the central Yucatan on Sun morning
where it will stall and linger through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
GALE-FORCE wind warning for the SW North Atlantic Ocean.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north
of 26N between 58W and 64W, and well ahead of the cold front.
Fresh to strong SE winds were captured by a scatterometer pass
this morning north of 27N between 55W and 66W. Seas of 8 to 10
ft prevail across this area of convection.

In the central Atlantic, high pressure extends across the area
anchored by a 1034 mb high near 37N49W. To the east of this high,
a cold front extends from 31N26W to 24N50W. Moderate to fresh NE
to E winds prevail north of the front with seas ranging 9 to 12
ft. Ahead of the front to 20N, gentle to moderate NE to E winds
are noted with 8 to 10 ft seas. In the tropical Atlantic S of
20N, fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail with 8 to 12 ft
seas. The 8 ft seas extend as far east as the Lesser Antilles and
just to the north of the Puerto Rico offshore waters. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds and seas 8 to 10 ft are found in the eastern
Atlantic off the African coast.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic cold front will reach from
31N67W to eastern Cuba by Sat morning and stall from 31N63W to
central Cuba by Sun. Large swell E of 65W will propagate SE and
diminish across the area by Sun as the front moves eastward.
Strong winds across the northern waters will prevail through Sat
while moderate to fresh winds will diminish by Mon along with
subsiding seas.

$$
Stripling
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