[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Dec 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: An Arctic cold front has
moved through the Gulf of Mexico. Most of the front is in the
Atlantic Ocean. Parts of the front are in the Straits of
Florida, in the Yucatan Channel, and in parts of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Northerly gale-force winds are
in the western one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near
gale force northerly winds are in the eastern two-thirds of the
area. from 90W eastward. The comparatively highest sea heights
range from 15 feet to 20 feet in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Widespread gale force NW to N winds, and very high seas,
will continue for most of the basin through the early evening
hours. The gale-force winds will slow down during the early
morning hours of this morning, for most of the Gulf of Mexico. The
conditions are forecast to improve slowly through the weekend and
into early next week. The gale-force winds will continue in the
Veracruz offshore waters through Sunday night. The offshore seas
will peak to 21 feet from Tampico to Veracruz.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 06N12W. The ITCZ continues from 06N12W, to
04N23W 03N33W 02N44W, to the Equator along 48W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 300 nm to the north of
the ITCZ between 44W and 49W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 50W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for the details about
the gale-force wind conditions and the sea heights, and other
dangerous conditions that are expected for the Gulf of Mexico. A
western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N74W, to the
NW Bahamas, beyond the Florida Keys. The front continues from
the Florida Keys, to the eastern sections of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is from 26N southward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 13
feet in much of the rest of the eastern two-thirds of the Gulf
of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from a south Texas 1037 mb high pressure
center, to the NW sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico.

A strong cold front extends from the Florida Keys to the
northern Yucatan. The front will exit the Gulf in the next few
hours. Gale-force winds have ended across most of the basin with
fresh to strong winds now prevailing and very rough seas still
persisting across the Gulf. Gale-force winds are still
continuing in the Veracruz offshore waters. The fresh to strong
winds will continue across most of the Gulf tonight with
conditions slowly improving through the weekend. The gale-force
winds across Veracruz will persist through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic Ocean-to-Florida Keys cold front is moving through
the Yucatan Channel. Near gale-force NE winds are in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Strong NE to E winds have been from 17N southward
between 69W and 79W. Fresh NE to E winds have been in much of the
rest of the area that is from 18N southward. Moderate or slower
wind speeds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The sea
heights of 8 feet have been reaching the NE corner of the
Caribbean Sea from the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights have been
ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet in the south central Caribbean Sea.
The sea heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet
elsewhere.

Surface ridging N of the region will extend to the northern
Caribbean through the middle of next week. This will continue to
provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central
and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong winds will continue for the Gulf
of Venezuela and NW Colombia offshore waters through Wed night. NE
and E swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic waters
through Wed. The swell may impact the E Caribbean late in the
weekend into early next week. A cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean tonight with fresh to strong winds and rough seas that
will persist across this region through Mon night. The front will
reach from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan by Sat morning,
from eastern Cuba to the central Yucatan on Sun morning where it
will stall and linger through at least Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N74W, to the
NW Bahamas, beyond the Florida Keys. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 180 nm to 240 nm to
the east and southeast of the cold front. Strong to near gale-
force winds are from the cold front northward and northwestward.
Moderate to fresh west to southwest winds are from 24N to the cold
front from 70W westward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12
feet from 28N northward from the cold front westward and
northwestward. The sea heights range from 3 feet or less from the
Bahamas westward.

An Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N25W to 28N30W
24N40W 22N47W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible
rainshowers, are within 120 nm on either side of the cold front.

A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 35N47W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold
front and 23N northward from 60W eastward.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are from the central Atlantic
Ocean front northward. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are from
20N to the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 20N
southward. The 8 ft seas extend as far to the east as the Lesser
Antilles, and just to the north of the Puerto Rico offshore
waters. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the eastern
Atlantic Ocean off the African coast. The sea heights range from
10 feet to 12 feet from the cold front northward. The sea
heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 17N southward from 30W
eastward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet in the
rest of the Atlantic Ocean from 60W eastward.

A cold front extends from 31N74W to the Bahamas to the Florida
Keys. Strong to near gale-force NW winds continue behind the
front with very rough seas. The cold front will reach from
31N68W to eastern Cuba by Sat morning and stall from 31N66W to
central Cuba by Sun and linger through midweek. Strong winds
across the northern waters will prevail through Sat. Winds will
become moderate to fresh by Sat night and slowly diminish by Mon
with slowly subsiding seas. Large swell noted E of 65W will
shift as the front moves eastward.

$$
mt/ar
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