[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Dec 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm-Force Wind Warning: An Arctic cold front
extends from Clearwater, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico with a
pre-frontal trough stretching southwestward from Everglades
City, Florida to 22N87W as of 15z. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm ahead of the
pre-frontal trough. Scattered thunderstorms are also observed
along the cold front in the south-central Gulf. Near gale to
gale-force N winds prevail behind the front with very rough
seas. The cold front will stretch from the Florida Keys to the
Yucatan by this evening and exit the basin tonight. Widespread
gale force NW winds and rough to very rough seas will continue
for most of the basin today with minimal storm-force winds
developing in the Veracruz offshore waters this afternoon
through the early evening hours. Gale-force winds will come to
an end by this evening into tonight for most of the Gulf with
conditions slowly improving through the weekend and into early
next week. However, gale-force winds will continue across the
Veracruz offshore waters through Sunday night. Seas will peak
near Veracruz around 20 ft.

SW N Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: As of 15z, a cold
front emerged into the western Atlantic and stretches from Palm
Coast, Florida to 31N80W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed ahead
of the front extending from Ft. Lauderdale, Florida to 31N75W.
Scattered thunderstorms are observed ahead of the pre-frontal
trough north of 24N and west of 73W. Fresh to strong winds and
rough seas are between the northeast coast of Florida and 72W
just N of the Bahamas associated with the cold front. Gale-force
winds are likely within the aforementioned area, however just
north of 29N and continuing through this afternoon. Seas are
forecast to reach 15 feet later today. The gale- force winds
will move to the north of the forecast area by tonight. Strong
winds will diminish slowly on Saturday with seas subsiding
through Sunday.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland across the coastal sections of
Liberia near 05N08W. The ITCZ extends from 05N09W to 03N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04S to 09N between
30W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about the Storm Warning
and other dangerous conditions expected for the Gulf of Mexico.

In the far east and southeastern parts of the basin, ahead of
the aforementioned cold front, moderate SW to W winds prevail
with seas ranging 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, see the Special Features section.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail across the eastern and
central Caribbean with strong to near gale-force NE winds north
of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in the south-
central Caribbean range 8 to 10 ft. Seas in the eastern basin
range 4 to 7 ft. In the northwestern Caribbean, light to gentle
winds with seas to 4 ft are noted. No significant convection is
observed at this time.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will
extend to the northern Caribbean through early next week. This
will continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across
the eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong winds are
expected to continue for the Gulf of Venezuela and NW Colombia
offshore waters through Tue. Mixed N and E swell will persist
over the tropical Atlantic waters through at least Tue. The
swell will also impact the eastern Caribbean late in the weekend
and into early next week. A cold front will move into the NW
Caribbean late tonight into early Sat along with fresh to strong
winds and rough seas. These conditions will persist across this
region through Mon night. The front will reach from western Cuba
to the northern Yucatan by Sat morning, from eastern Cuba to the
central Yucatan on Sun morning where it will stall and linger
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
GALE-FORCE wind warning for the SW North Atlantic Ocean.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north
of 25N between 55W and 69W. Fresh to strong SE winds were
captured by a scatterometer pass this morning north of 27N
between 55W and 66W. Seas up to 14 ft are associated with this
area of convection

In the central Atlantic, high pressure extends across the area
anchored by a 1036 mb high near 38N50W. To the east of this high,
a cold front extends from 31N29W to 24N45W. Moderate to fresh NE
to E winds prevail north of the front with seas ranging 12 to 14
ft. Ahead of the front to 20N, gentle to moderate NE to E winds
are noted with 8 to 11 ft seas. In the tropical Atlantic S of
20N, fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail with 8 to 12 ft
seas. The 8 ft seas extend as far east as the Lesser Antilles
and just to the north of the Puerto Rico offshore waters.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas 8 to 10 ft are found in
the eastern Atlantic off the African coast.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic cold front will reach
from 31N67W to eastern Cuba by Sat morning and stall from 31N63W
to central Cuba by Sun. Large swell E of 70W will shift as the
front moves eastward. Strong winds across the northern waters
will prevail through Sat while moderate to fresh winds will
diminish by Mon along with subsiding seas.

$$
Nepaul
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