[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm-Force Wind Warning: An Arctic cold front
extends from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico, Mexico.
Scatterometer data earlier tonight showed 40 kt winds behind the
gales. Very rough seas are also accompanying these winds, peaking
near 16 ft off the South Texas coast. Expect widespread areas of
gale- force NW winds and very rough seas today. Brief storm- force
winds are likely this afternoon near Veracruz, Mexico and will
end by this evening. Gale- force winds will end across most of the
Gulf by tonight, but continue near Veracruz through Saturday
night and possibly on Sunday. Seas will peak near Veracruz around
20 ft. Conditions will improve slowly through the weekend and
into early next week. A blast of arctic air also will follow the
front, bringing to south Florida the coldest temperatures up to
this moment in the season during the upcoming holiday weekend.

SW N Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: A strong cold front
will emerge from the SE United States coast early this morning. W
to NW gale- force winds are forecast off the coast of NE Florida
this morning through this afternoon north of 30N west of 74W.
Seas are forecast to reach 15 feet later today. The gale- force
winds will move to the north of the forecast area by tonight.
Strong winds will diminish slowly on Saturday with seas subsiding
through Sunday.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W to 04N14W. The ITCZ extends from 04N14W to 02N30W to
02N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S to 09N
between 26W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about the Storm Warning
and other dangerous conditions expected for the Gulf of Mexico.

The cold front extends from the western Florida Panhandle to
Tampico, Mexico. A pre-frontal trough stretches from Ft. Myers,
Florida to 22N85W. Ahead of the pre-frontal trough, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 22N to 26N
and E of 88W. Scattered thunderstorms are also observed ahead of
the front in the south-central Gulf. Moderate easterly winds are
ahead of the front with seas ranging 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, see the Special Features section.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the eastern and central
Caribbean with strong to near gale-force NE winds N of Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in the south-central Caribbean
range 8-10 ft. Seas in the eastern basin range 4-7 ft. In the NW
Caribbean, light to gentle winds with seas to 4 ft are noted. No
significant convection is observed at this time.

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to
the northern Caribbean through early next week. This will continue
to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern,
central and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong winds are expected to
continue for the Gulf of Venezuela and NW Colombia offshore waters
through Tue. Mixed N and E swell will persist over the tropical
Atlantic waters through at least Tue. The swell will also impact
the eastern Caribbean late in the weekend and into early next
week. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean late tonight
and into early Sat along with fresh to strong winds and rough
seas. These conditions will persist across this region through Mon
night. The front will reach from western Cuba to the northern
Yucatan by Sat morning, from eastern Cuba to the central Yucatan
on Sun morning. The front will stall in this area and linger
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
GALE-FORCE wind warning for the SW North Atlantic Ocean.

Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Florida, with
scattered moderate convection N of 25N between 59W and 71W.
Strong to near gale-force winds are likely off the NE Florida
coast with seas ranging 8-9 ft. To the east, fresh to strong winds
are noted with seas to 14 ft.

In the central Atlantic, high pressure extends across the area
anchored by a 1036 mb high near 38N52W. To the east of this high,
a cold front extends from 31N29W to 22N47W. Moderate to fresh NE
winds prevail north of the front with seas ranging 12 to 14 ft.
Ahead of the front to 20N, moderate E winds are noted with 8-11
ft seas. In the tropical Atlantic S of 20N, fresh to locally
strong winds prevail with 8-12 ft seas. The 8 ft seas extend as
far east as the Lesser Antilles and just to the north of the
Puerto Rico offshore waters.

In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh E winds are off the
African coast with seas 8-10 ft.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will move off the NE
Florida coast this morning and will reach from 31N67W to eastern
Cuba by Sat morning and stall from 31N63W to central Cuba by Sun.
Strong to gale- force winds and rough seas are expected to affect
the waters N of 29N early this morning through this afternoon. The
large swell E of 70W will shift as the front moves eastward.
Winds will diminish below gale- force this evening with the strong
winds prevailing through Sat. Moderate to fresh winds will
diminish by Mon along with subsiding seas.

$$
AReinhart
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