[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Dec 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm-Force Wind Warning: An Arctic cold front is
in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect widespread areas of
gale- force NW winds, and high seas, in most of the basin, from
tonight through Friday. Wind speeds to storm-force are expected
for Friday afternoon near Veracruz in Mexico. Gale-force winds
will slow down in some areas to less than gale-force by Friday
night. Gale- force winds are expected to continue near Veracruz
through Fri night, and possibly on Saturday and Sunday. An area of
sea heights 12 feet or higher will cover nearly all of the Gulf
from 85W westward, with peak seas nearly 20 feet. The conditions
will improve slowly, later this weekend and into early next week.
A blast of arctic air also will follow the front, bringing to
south Florida the coldest temperatures up to this moment in the
season during the upcoming holiday weekend.

SW N Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: A strong cold front
will emerge from the SE United States coast from tonight into
early Friday morning. W to NW gale-force winds are forecast off
the coast of NE Florida, through Fri afternoon north of 30N west
of 74W. The sea heights are forecast to reach 15 feet on Friday.
The gale-force winds will move to the north of the forecast area
by Friday night. Strong winds will slow down slowly on Saturday.
The sea heights will subside gradually by Sunday.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections of
Liberia near 05N08W, to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W, to
02N26W 03N33W 02N41W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 10W eastward, and from 02N to 09N between 34W and
48W. Scattered to numerous strong is from 03N southward between
47W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
developing storm-force winds, and sea heights to range from 12
feet to 19 feet, that are forecast in about 18 hours, for the
areas that are from 19N to 24N between 95W and 98W. This warning
area includes the part that is within 60 nm of the coast of
Veracruz in Mexico. Expect this front to bring dangerous weather
conditions to the Gulf of Mexico, from tonight through Friday.
Gale-force winds are in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 19 feet,
are forecast to develop from 20N to 30N between 82W and 97W, in
about 18 hours.

A cold front is in the NW Gulf of Mexico, just offshore the Texas
Gulf coast. A surface trough extends from a Florida Big Bend
coastal waters 1011 mb low pressure center to 25N94W. An Atlantic
Ocean cold front stops near 31N78W. A stationary front continues
from 31N78W, across NE Florida, to the 1011 mb Gulf of Mexico low
pressure center. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 300 nm to the south and southeast of the
Atlantic Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico frontal boundary and surface
trough. The sea heights are building to 7 feet from the NW Gulf
cold front northward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet
elsewhere.

A strong cold front is currently stretching from southeast
Louisiana to Corpus Christi, TX. Gale-force NW winds already are
following the front with building seas. The front will bring
widespread gale force NW winds and rough to very rough seas across
most of the basin through Fri. Minimal storm-force winds are
likely for the Veracruz offshore waters Fri afternoon through the
early evening hours. Gale-force winds will come to an end by Fri
night for most of the Gulf, with conditions slowly improving
through the weekend and into early next week. However, gale-force
winds will continue across the Veracruz offshore waters through
Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Near gale-force NE winds are within 180 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 73W and 76W. Strong NE winds are elsewhere within
300 nm of the rest of the coast of Colombia. The sea heights are
ranging from 7 feet to 8 feet in the Anegada Passage. The sea
heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the south central two-
thirds of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 4 feet to
7 feet, elsewhere to the east of the south central Caribbean Sea,
and they range from 3 feet to 6 feet to the west of the south
central sections. Fresh NE-toE winds are in the eastern one-third,
elsewhere in the central one-third. Moderate or slower wind
are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated to widely
scattered passing rainshowers span the area, in patches of shallow
moisture that are embedded in the trade wind flow.

Surface ridging N of the region will extend to the northern
Caribbean through the forecast period and continue to provide
moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central and SW
Caribbean. Pulsing strong winds are expected to continue for the
Gulf of Venezuela and NW Colombia offshore waters through Mon.
Mixed N and E swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic waters
through at least Tue. A cold front will move into the NW
Caribbean by late Fri into early Sat along with fresh to strong
winds and rough seas that will continue to affect this region of
the basin through Mon night. The front will reach from western
Cuba to the northern Yucatan by Sat morning, from eastern Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras on Sun morning where it will stall before
weakening Mon night into Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
GALE-FORCE wind warning for the SW North Atlantic Ocean.

An Atlantic Ocean cold front stops near 31N78W. A stationary
front continues from 31N78W, across NE Florida, to the 1011 mb
Gulf of Mexico low pressure center. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is from 27N northward between 64W and 72W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to
the south and southeast of the rest of the Atlantic Ocean-to-Gulf
of Mexico frontal boundary and surface trough.

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N31W, to
26N40W and 23N50W. The front is dissipating stationary from 23N50W
to 23N65W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 210 nm to the north and northwest of the frontal boundary.
Fresh to strong SE winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet
to 11 feet in NE swell, are from the frontal boundary northward.

A surface ridge passes through 31N20W, to 29N27W and 25N36W.
Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the
north and northwest of the 31N31W 23N65W frontal boundary.

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the surface ridge
and the comparatively lower surface pressures that are near the
ITCZ, have been supporting moderate to fresh trade winds, and sea
heights that range from 7 feet to 10 feet, in the tropical
Atlantic Ocean, especially from 20N southward. Moderate or slower
wind speeds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are
elsewhere.

A stationary front extends off the NE Florida coast. Moderate
winds are near this front while fresh to strong SE winds are
affecting the northern waters ahead of it between 63W and 74W. A
stronger cold front will move off the Florida coast early Fri
morning. Strong to gale- force winds and rough seas are expected
to affect the waters N of 29N Fri. Winds will diminish below gale-
force Fri evening, however strong winds will prevail through Sat.
Moderate to fresh winds and remaining swell will subside Mon.

$$
mt/ar
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