[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182315
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Dec 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to
04N30W to 03N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N
to 06N between 17W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Ft. Myers, Florida to 24N90W where
the front stalls from that point to the southern Bay of Campeche
near 19N93W. Showers are noted within 60 nm of the front. A trough
extends from the Florida Keys to the NE Yucatan. Fresh to strong
winds prevail north and west of the front in the central and
western Gulf, S of 28N and W of 87W. Seas range 7-10 ft in this
area. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across the rest of
the Gulf with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the front will move southward across the SE
Gulf into the Straits of Florida overnight, except lift northward
over the western Gulf ahead of low pressure moving through
northeast Mexico. The whole front will lift northward Tue as a
warm front while the low pressure moves into the north- central
Gulf. A trailing cold front over the western Gulf will dissipate
through mid week. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front may move
off the Texas coast into the far northwest Gulf Thu night followed
by near-gale or gale force winds and rough to very rough seas
across the basin through Fri, with strong gales possible off
Veracruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends across the NE Caribbean from 16N62W to 16N69W. No
significant convection is noted with this feature. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean with
seas ranging 5-8 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted in the NW
Caribbean with seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will
maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and
SW Caribbean Sea through at least Thu night. Moderate to locally
fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to
moderate winds in the W Caribbean. Large, long-period N to NE
swell will continue to move into the tropical Atlantic and through
the Anegada Passage into the northeast Caribbean for the next
several days. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the
Yucatan Channel by Fri accompanied by fresh to strong winds and
rough seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N69W to
near West Palm Beach, Florida. Moderate to locally fresh N-NW
winds are noted behind the front. Meanwhile, a dying stationary
front extends from 31N44W to the northern Bahamas with a trough
extending from the northern Bahamas to the Florida Keys. Moderate
to locally fresh southerly winds are noted ahead of the dying
stationary front. Seas range 4-7 ft in this region. Along these
boundaries, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring from 23N to 31N between 57W and 79W.

A 1020 mb high pressure is located in the central Atlantic near
26N53W. Light to gentle winds are noted near this high. South of
the high pressure, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across
the tropical Atlantic S of 22N and W of 25W. Seas ranging 8-12 ft
continue to persist across the central Atlantic between 35W and
67W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends west of the Canary
Islands near 31N23W to 21N40W with a trough extending from the
tail-end of the front to the Lesser Antilles near 16N61W. Moderate
to fresh W winds are behind the front with moderate S winds ahead
of it. Seas up to 13 ft are noted near the front.

For the forecast, the cold front reaching from 31N68W to Jupiter
Inlet, Florida will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida
overnight, from 31N55W to central Cuba Mon night, then weaken from
25N55W to the southeast Bahamas through Tue. Low pressure will
move along the front from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across
Florida Tue night, then continue to east of the northern Bahamas
Wed while dissipating. Near-gale to gale force winds are likely
from 26N to 28N east of the Bahamas Wed into Thu, as the low
pressure shifts eastward. Looking ahead, winds will become more
southerly Thu ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast by the end of next week, accompanied
by strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas.

$$
AReinhart
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