[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Dec 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 08N12W, to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from
07N14W, to 06N20W 04N30W 03N40W 03N46W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward
between 13W and 53W, and from 04N to 07N from 08W eastward.
Upper level westerly wind flow is pushing high level moisture
northeastward, from the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea, toward
Africa, from 18N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough continues from 27N78W, to the tip of South
Florida and the Florida Keys, to a Gulf of Mexico 1015 mb low
pressure center that is near 24N84W. The surface trough continues
from the 1015 mb low pressure center, to the coastal plains of the
NE Yucatan Peninsula, and to southern Belize. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are south of the front.

A cold front passes through 31N76W to inland Florida near 28N82W.
The front is stationary in the Gulf of Mexico, to 24N80W, curving
to 22N94W, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds are north of the front and west of
87W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are west of the stationary
front offshore Mexico. Seas are 7 to 11 ft north of the front to
26N and west of 91W, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere north of the front.

A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the SW Gulf
stalls to the central Bay of Campeche. Weak low pressure ahead of
the front in the SE Gulf will weaken as it moves southeast early
today. The front will sweep southward across the SE Gulf into the
Straits of Florida by tonight, except lifting northward over the
western Gulf ahead of low pressure moving through northeast
Mexico. The front may lift northward early Tue as a warm front
while the low pressure moves into the north- central Gulf. A
trailing cold front over the western Gulf will dissipate through
mid week. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front may move off the
Texas coast into the far northwest Gulf Thu night followed by
near-gale or gale force winds and building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds cover the south central and
SW Caribbean Sea, due to surface ridging in the Atlantic Ocean
subtropical waters. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are in
the E basin, and gentle to moderate winds are in the NW
Caribbean Sea. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in the eastern
half of the basin, 7 to 10 ft in the south central and SW
Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft in the north central and NW Caribbean Sea.
Areas of rainshowers are from 70W westward.

Surface ridging north of the region will maintain fresh to strong
NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean Sea
through at least Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will
prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the W
Caribbean. Large, long-period N to NE swell will continue to move
into the tropical Atlantic and through the Anegada Passage into
the northeast Caribbean for the next several days. A cold front
will dissipate as it toward the Yucatan Channel tonight into Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N49W to 29N57W. The stationary
front is dissipating from 29N57W, 27N68W 27N78W. A surface trough
continues from 27N78W, to the tip of South Florida and the Florida
Keys, to a Gulf of Mexico 1015 mb low pressure center that is near
24N84W. The surface trough continues from the 1015 mb low pressure
center, to the coastal plains of the NE Yucatan Peninsula, and to
southern Belize. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from the dissipating stationary front
northward between 60W and 70W, and from 24N to 28N between 70W and
80W. Fresh to locally strong winds are north of 30N and east of
the front to 47W.

A cold front passes through 31N76W to inland Florida near 28N82W.
The front is stationary in the Gulf of Mexico, to 24N80W, curving
to 22N94W, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 26N57W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between the
eastern Atlantic Ocean front/trough and the stationary front.
Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are in the area of the
anticyclonic wind flow, north of 22N, except moderate offshore
northern Florida where the cold front is moving into the coastal
waters. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft in NE swell in the SW N
Atlantic Ocean, except around the eastern periphery where they
are 7 to 11 ft.

An eastern-to-central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through
31N23W to 26N30W 24N35W. The cold front is dissipating from 24N35W
to 20N46W. A surface trough continues from 20N46W to 16N60W,
through Guadeloupe, and into the Caribbean Sea near 16N69W. The
frontal boundary and the surface trough are marked by a thin line
of clouds in the visible satellite imagery. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 120 nm to the east of the cold front
from 27N northward. Rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on
either side of the rest of the front/trough. Fresh to strong SW
winds are north of 27N within 120 nm ahead of the front. Large
northerly swell of 8 ft or greater covers the central and eastern
Atlantic Ocean, peaking around 17 ft along 31N between 26W and
35W, except 5 to 7 ft south and southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Moderate to fresh trades cover the waters south of 20N
and west of 35W.

A stationary front from 29N55W to near the northern Bahamas and
to southern Florida will dissipate today. A cold front off the
northeast Florida coast will reach from Bermuda to NW Cuba by late
tonight, and from 31N55W to central Cuba Mon night, before
starting to weaken from 25N55W to the southeast Bahamas through
Tue. Meanwhile, large long-period N to NE swell will continue to
affect the NE half of the area for the next several days. Looking
ahead, low pressure may move along the front from the eastern Gulf
of Mexico across Florida Tue night, then continue to east of the
northern Bahamas Wed while dissipating. Winds will become more
southerly Thu ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast by the end of next week.

$$
mt/ec
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