[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180931
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Dec 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0740 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 04N35W to
the coast of French Guiana at 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 24W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the SW Gulf
stalls to the central Bay of Campeche. Earlier ASCAT scatterometer
data showed fresh to strong N to NE winds north of the front and
west of 87W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are west of the
stationary front offshore Mexico. Seas are 7 to 11 ft north of the
front to 26N and west of 91W, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere north of the
front. Weak 1014 mb low pressure is southeast of the front near
25N84W along a trough which extends from SW Florida through the
low to the north-central Yucatan Peninsula. Mainly gentle to
moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are south of the front. Some
showers and thunderstorms are near the low per satellite imagery.
Similar convection is noted near the Yucatan Channel southeast of
the trough.

For the forecast, the cold front will sweep southward across the
SE Gulf into the Straits of Florida by tonight while low pressure
ahead of it weakens while shifting southeast, except the western
portion of the front will move northward over the western Gulf
ahead of low pressure moving through northeast Mexico. The front
may continue to lift northward early Tue as a warm front while
the low pressure moves into the north-central Gulf. A trailing
cold front over the western Gulf will dissipate through mid week.
Looking ahead, a stronger cold front may move off the Texas coast
into the far northwest Gulf Thu night followed by near-gale or
gale force winds and building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds prevail across the south-
central and SW Caribbean Sea due to surface ridging across the
Atlantic subtropical waters. Earlier ASCAT scatterometer data
showed moderate to locally fresh trade winds in the E basin and
gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas are in the
5 to 7 ft range in the eastern half of the basin, 7 to 10 ft in
the south-central and SW Caribbean, and 2 to ft in the north-
central and NW Caribbean. Scattered thunderstorms are near and in
the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are elsewhere in the NW
Caribbean west of 85W.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will
maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and
SW Caribbean Sea through at least Thu night. Moderate to locally
fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to
moderate winds in the W Caribbean. Large, long-period N to NE
swell will continue to move into the tropical Atlantic and through
the Anegada Passage into the northeast Caribbean for the next
several days. A cold front will dissipate as it toward the Yucatan
Channel tonight into Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N56W to near
the northern Bahamas and to southern Florida. Fresh to locally
strong winds are north of 30N and east of the front to 47W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north of 26N
between 70W and 77W. A ridge axis extends along 25N from 1019 mb
high pressure centered near 25N56W. Light to gentle anticyclonic
winds are under the ridge north of 22N, except moderate offshore
northern Florida where a cold front is moving into the coastal
waters. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft in NE swell in the SW N
Atlantic, except around the eastern periphery where they are
7 to 11 ft.

In the eastern and central Atlantic, a cold front extends from
southeast of the Azores through 31N26W to 24N35W where it
continues as dissipating to 20N46W. Fresh to strong SW winds are
north of 27N within 120 nm ahead of the front. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible north of 26N within 75 nm ahead of the
front per satellite imagery. Large northerly swell of 8 ft or
greater dominates the central and eastern Atlantic, peaking around
17 ft along 31N between 26W and 35W, except 5 to 7 ft south and
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh trades
dominate the waters south of 20N and west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the dissipating stationary front
will completely dissipate today. The cold front off the northeast
Florida coast will reach from Bermuda to NW Cuba by late tonight,
and from 31N55W to central Cuba Mon night, before starting to
weaken from 25N55W to the southeast Bahamas through Tue.
Meanwhile, large long-period N to NE swell will continue to affect
the NE half of the area for the next several days. Looking ahead,
low pressure may move along the front from the eastern Gulf of
Mexico across Florida Tue night, then continue to east of the
northern Bahamas Wed while dissipating. Winds will become more
southerly Thu ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off
the northeast Florida coast by the end of next week.

$$
Lewitsky
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