[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190433
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Dec 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent, entering the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 03N33W to
00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 07N
and between 15W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Everglades City, Florida to 25N87W,
where it becomes a stationary front to 23N92W. A surface trough
extends from NE Mexico to 21N92W and a weak 1014 mb low pressure
is located along the trough near 22N96W. Finally, another surface
trough is found in the eastern Bay of Campeche. A few showers are
noted in satellite imagery near these boundaries. The remainder of
the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a 1029 mb high pressure over
the Ohio River valley and the weather conditions are fairly quiet.
Fresh to strong NE-E winds are noted N of 22N. Seas in these
waters are 5-9 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found
from 23N to 26N and W of 89W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of
4-8 ft are occurring S of 22N in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will move southward
across the SE Gulf into the Straits of Florida overnight, except
lift northward over the western Gulf ahead of another low pressure
moving through northeast Mexico. The whole front will lift
northward Tue as a warm front while the low pressure moves into
the north- central Gulf. A trailing cold front over the western
Gulf will dissipate through mid week. Looking ahead, a stronger
cold front may move off the Texas coast into the far northwest
Gulf Thu night followed by near-gale or gale force winds and rough
to very rough seas across the basin through Fri, with strong
gales possible off Veracruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough enters the NE Caribbean near 17N62W and continues
westward to 17N71W. A few shallow showers are seen near the trough
axis. The rest of the Caribbean Sea experiences fairly tranquil
weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are evident
in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela.
Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh
easterly trade winds are present in the remainder of the central
and eastern Caribbean. Seas in the waters described are 4-6 ft.
Gentle to moderate easterly breezes and 2-4 ft are observed in the
NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will maintain
fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW
Caribbean Sea through at least Fri night. Moderate to locally
fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to
moderate winds in the W Caribbean. Large, long-period N to NE
swell will continue to move into the tropical Atlantic and
through the Anegada Passage into the northeast Caribbean for the
next several days. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the
Yucatan Channel by Fri accompanied by fresh to strong winds and
rough seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is draped across the SW Atlantic waters, extending
from 31N67W to southern Florida. Scattered moderate convection is
seen ahead of the frontal boundary to 63W and north of 25N.
Moderate to fresh N-NW winds are evident behind the frontal
boundary, along with seas of 4-8 ft. The highest seas are found
north of 29N and east of 75W. Moderate SW winds and seas of 6-12
ft are noted ahead of the front to 55W and north of 27N.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N22W to 28N26W, where it
becomes a stationary front to 21N43W and then a surface trough
continues southwestward to the Leeward Islands. No deep convection
is occurring near the boundary. Moderate to locally
fresh W winds and seas of 8-13 ft are noted north of 28N and
between 27W and 43W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is
dominated by a 1022 mb high pressure system near 26N50W. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south
of 20N and west of 25W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
captured a small area of strong winds near 06N44W. Seas south of
20N and west of 25W are 6-10 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front reaching from Bermuda to Homestead,
Florida will reach from 31N55W to central Cuba Mon night, then
weaken from 25N55W to the southeast Bahamas through Tue. Low
pressure will move along the front from the eastern Gulf of Mexico
across Florida Tue night, then continue to east of the northern
Bahamas Wed while dissipating. Near-gale to gale force winds are
likely from 26N to 28N east of the Bahamas Wed into Thu, as the
low pressure shifts eastward. Looking ahead, winds will become
more southerly Thu ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move
off the northeast Florida coast by the end of the week,
accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas.

$$
DELGADO
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