[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Dec 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2220 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The
METEO-FRANCE marine forecast consists of gale-force winds in the
marine area IRVING, until 13/0000 UTC. The IRVING marine area
extends from 30N to 35N between 22W and 35W. A cold front passes
through 31N28W 24N40W 20N50W 16N60W, and into the Caribbean Sea
from 16N60W, along 15N/16N, to 16N73W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is within 120 nm to the east and southeast of
the cold front from 26N northward. Strong to near gale-force SW
winds are from 24N northward between 25W and 38W. Wave heights
range from 7 feet to 10 feet from 14N northward from 40W eastward,
in general, and from 11 feet to 14 feet from the Canary Islands
northward from 20W eastward in particular. Wave heights range
from 7 feet to 14 feet from 16N northward between 40W and 60W.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by
Meteo-France, at the website:
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from
06N16W to 05N49W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted
from 00N to 07N between 07W and 30W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 32W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes across southern Florida, to the south of Lake
Okeechobee, to the Florida west coast along 26.5N. The front
becomes a warm front at the Florida west coast along 26.5N, and
extends to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 30N85.5W. A
cold front continues from the 1016 mb low pressure center,
through 27N90W, then become stationary to the Texas Gulf coast
along 28.5N. Widely scattered moderate convection aloft is seen
within 120 nm of the coast of Texas.

Broad surface high pressure is in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. A 1019 mb high pressure center is in Mexico near 19N98W.
Mainly light to gentle winds prevail across the basin, except for
moderate SE winds across the far NW Gulf. Sea heights range from
1 to 2 ft across most of the basin to 3 ft across the NW coastal
waters.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the NE Gulf will
continue through this evening. This activity may develop again
on Tue, as a weak stationary front lingers in the area, and as
an upper-level disturbance passes through this part of the Gulf.
Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions will continue today as a
surface ridge over the area begins to shift eastward. Fresh to
locally strong SE return flow is expected in the western and
central Gulf tonight into Tue night as a cold front approaches
the NW Gulf. Seas will build in the area of strongest winds. The
front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed morning, reach
from Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Thu
night and from the Straits of Florida to the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri. Fresh to strong N winds are
expected behind the front Wed in the western Gulf, diminishing
to moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front later for
the central and eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic cold front enters the Caribbean Basin through
16N60W, along 15N/16N, to 16N72W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 90 nm on either side of the front E of 66W.

A weak surface trough is along 76W/77W, from 17N in the Caribbean
Sea to 24N, in the Central Bahamas. Isolated moderate convection
is is within 120 nm on either side of the surface trough, also
dots the waters of the Gulf of Honduras.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between 70W and 80W, with the
fastest wind speeds in the coastal waters of Colombia and
Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate wind speeds or slower are
elsewhere. Sea heights range from 5 to 8 feet in the NE Caribbean
Sea passages due to large swell from the Atlantic Ocean. Sea
heights range from 5 to 7 feet offshore Colombia, 3 to 5 feet
elsewhere in the eastern and central sections of the Caribbean
Sea, and 2 to 3 feet in the NW portions.

A weakening cold front extending from 19N55W to the Caribbean
between Guadeloupe and Dominica is forecast to dissipate by early
Tue. In the wake of this front, weak high pressure ridging north
of the Caribbean Sea is allowing for moderate northeast to east
trade winds across the basin, except for fresh to pulsing locally
strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia. Little change is expected
through Tue night. Then, winds will increase slightly across the
basin during the middle of the week as high pressure builds to the
east of Florida. Large N to NE swell will continue to propagate
through the NE Caribbean passages and affect the Tropical N
Atlantic waters for much of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N69W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond
26N to the eastern coast of Florida. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 300 nm to the southeast of
the cold front, from 24N northward, and within 120 nm north of the
front. Fresh N to NW winds prevail along and W of the front. Sea
heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from the Greater Antilles
northward from 60W westward.

A surface trough is along 76W/77W, from the Caribbean Sea to 24N,
in the Bahamas. Widely scattered moderate convection is within
240 nm E of the surface trough.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 23N70W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the waters that are from the
between the cold front to the northwest, and another cold front
extending from the eastern Atlantic to the Caribbean. Seas of 8 to
12 ft in N to NE swell dominate the waters from the Bahamas
eastward to 40W.

A cold front passes through 31N25W to 23.5N40W to 16N60W, and
into the Caribbean Sea.  Broad surface low pressure covers the
Atlantic Ocean from the cold front northward from 55W eastward.
Seas are 12 to 15 ft in NW to N swell north of the front and E of
40W.

A cold front across the NW waters and into south central Florida
will reach from near 30N55W to the central Bahamas to West Palm
Beach, Florida Tue evening, then weaken on Wed as high pressure
builds in east of Florida. Moderate to fresh N winds will prevail
behind this front tonight into Tue. Large N to NE swell will
continue to affect much of the area for the next couple of days.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to
develop offshore NE Florida beginning late Wed night as a strong
cold front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. The front is
forecast to move off the coast late Thu, reach from near 31N76W to
Stuart, Florida early Fri, and from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas to
Havana, Cuba by late Fri night. Fresh to strong southerly winds
will shift eastward across the northern and central waters, while
fresh west to northwest winds follow in behind the front.

$$
Stripling
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