[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Dec 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and the Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The
METEO-FRANCE marine forecast consists of gale-force winds in the
marine area IRVING, until 13/0000 UTC. The IRVING marine area
extends from 30N to 35N between 22W and 35W. A cold front passes
through 31N28W 24N40W 20N50W 16N60W, and into the Caribbean Sea
from 16N60W, along 15N/16N, to 16N73W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is within 150 nm to the east
and southeast of the cold front from 25N northward. Strong to
near gale-force SW winds are from 24N northward between 25W and
38W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from 14N
northward from 40W eastward, in general, and from 11 feet to 14
feet from the Canary Islands northward from 20W eastward in
particular. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 14 feet from
16N northward between 40W and 60W. The earlier gale-force wind
warning, for the marine zone that is called METEOR, that covers
from 25N to 30N between 22W and 35W, ends at 12/1800 UTC.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by
Meteo-France, at the website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern
Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from
06N16W, to 05N20W 04N30W 04N44W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the NW Bahamas, to 26N/27N along the
eastern coast of Florida, to the south of Lake Okeechobee, to
the Florida west coast along 27N. The front becomes stationary
front at the Florida west coast along 27N, and it continues to a
1016 mb low pressure center that is near 30N87W. A cold front
continues from the 1016 mb low pressure center, through 29N90W,
to the Texas Gulf coast along 28N. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 22N northward.

Broad surface high pressure is in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. A 1019 mb high pressure center is in Mexico near 20N99W.

Mainly gentle wind speeds, and sea heights that range from 1
foot to 3 feet, are in the Gulf of Mexico.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the NE Gulf will
continue through this evening. This activity may develop again
on Tue, as a weak stationary front lingers in the area, and as
an upper-level disturbance passes through this part of the Gulf.
Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions will continue today as a
surface ridge over the area begins to shift eastward. Fresh to
locally strong SE return flow is expected in the western and
central Gulf tonight into Tue night as a cold front approaches
the NW Gulf. Seas will build in the area of strongest winds. The
front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed morning, reach
from Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Thu
night and from the Straits of Florida to the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri. Fresh to strong N winds are
expected behind the front Wed in the western Gulf, diminishing
to moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front later for
the central and eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 16N60W,
along 15N/16N, to 16N73W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate within 120 nm on either side of the cold front.

A surface trough is along 76W/77W, from 10N in the Caribbean Sea
to 24N, in the Bahamas between Exuma and Cat Island.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 240 nm on either side
of the surface trough.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are between 70W and 80W. The
comparatively fastest wind speeds are in the coastal waters of
Colombia and Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate wind speeds or
slower are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 8
feet in the NE Caribbean Sea passages due to large swell from
the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet
offshore Colombia. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet
elsewhere in the eastern and central sections of the Caribbean
Sea, and from 2 feet to 4 feet in the NW corner of the area.

The ITCZ is along 07N/08N, from 74W in Colombia, through the
southern sections of Panama, and into the tropical NE Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 12N southward from 76W westward, including in the coastal
plains and in the coastal waters from Belize to Costa Rica.

A weakening cold front extending from 18N55W to Martinique is
forecast to dissipate by early Tue. In the wake of this front,
weak high pressure ridging north of the Caribbean Sea is
allowing for moderate northeast to east trade winds across the
basin, except for fresh to pulsing locally strong NE to E winds
offshore Colombia. Little change is expected through Tue night.
Then, winds will increase slightly across the basin during the
middle of the week as high pressure builds to the east of
Florida. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to
propagate through the NE Caribbean passages and affect the
Tropical N Atlantic waters for much of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N71W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond
26N/27N along the eastern coast of Florida. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to
the south-southeast of the cold front, from 25N northward.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 25N northward from 68W
westward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from the
Greater Antilles northward from 60W westward.

A surface trough is along 76W/77W, from 10N in the Caribbean Sea
to 24N, in the Bahamas between Exuma and Cat Island.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 240 nm on either side
of the surface trough.

The base of an upper level trough is near 13N48W. A cold front
passes through 31N28W 24N40W 20N50W 16N60W, and into the
Caribbean Sea from 16N60W, along 15N/16N, to 16N73W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 240 nm to 700 nm to the east and southeast of the cold
front, from 10N to 25N. Broad surface low pressure covers the
Atlantic Ocean from the cold front northward from 55W eastward.

A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 23N70W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the waters that are from the
31N28W-16N73W cold front northward between 55W and the
31N71W-to-the NW Bahamas cold front.

Moderate to fresh winds are to the southeast of the line that
passes that through 31N20W 22N40W 14N60W, and from the
31N28W-to-16N60W cold front northward between 40W and 55W.
Moderate wind speeds or slower are elsewhere in the Atlantic
Ocean.

A cold front extends from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and to Fort
Pierce, Florida. The front will reach from near 30N55W to the
central Bahamas to West Palm Beach, Florida Tue evening, then
weaken on Wed as high pressure builds in east of Florida.
Moderate to fresh N winds will come in behind this
front tonight into Tue. Large long-period N to NE swell will
continue to affect much of the area for the next couple of days.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to
develop offshore NE Florida beginning late Wed night as a strong
cold front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. The front is
forecast to move off the coast late Thu, reach from near 31N76W
to Stuart, Florida early Fri, and from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas
to Havana, Cuba by late Fri night. The fresh to strong southerly
winds will shift eastward across the northern and central
waters, while fresh west to northwest winds follow in behind the
front.

$$
mt/ja
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