[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Dec 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
11N15W and extends to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to
04N30W to 03N40W and to 02N48W. No significant convection is
noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge from high pressure centered over the eastern U.S.
extends over the Gulf of Mexico from the FL Big Bend to the Bay
of Campeche. This is allowing for moderate E to NE winds in the
eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh SE winds in the western Gulf.
A recent ASCAT pass recorded fresh winds in the NW Gulf due to a
tightening pressure gradient from an approaching low pressure
system, where seas are observed to be 3 to 5 ft and building.
Elsewhere, seas are below 3 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the area will shift
eastward through Tue night as a cold front approaches eastern
Texas. Fresh to locally strong SE return flow is expected in the
western and central Gulf through Tue night as the cold front
approaches the NW Gulf. Seas will build in the area of the
strongest winds. The front is expected to move over the NW Gulf
Wed morning, reaching from Tampa Bay, Florida, to the eastern
Bay of Campeche by Thu night, and from the Straits of Florida to
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri. The front is
expected to become stationary and weaken from the lower Straits
of Florida to the far south-central Gulf Sat and Sat night. A
line of thunderstorms is expected to accompany the front Wed and
Wed night across the NW and north-central Gulf. Strong N winds
are expected behind the front Wed in the western Gulf,
diminishing to moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the
front later for the central and eastern Gulf. Seas will build to
a peak of about 9 ft in the NW Gulf Wed, then shift to the NE
Gulf late Wed night into early Thu, before subsiding during the
afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Most of the Caribbean Sea is under fairly tranquil conditions
with no significant convection to note. A recent ASCAT pass
found light to gentle trade winds over a majority of the basin.
The exception is within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia, where
moderate to fresh winds are recorded. Buoy and altimeter data
report 4 to 6 ft seas in this region. Elsewhere, seas are mainly
2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, little change in these conditions is expected
through Tue night. Winds will increase slightly across the basin
beginning Wed as high pressure builds to the east of Florida.
Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to propagate
through the NE Caribbean passages and affect the Tropical N
Atlantic waters for much of the week. Another large set of N
swell is forecast to begin to propagate through the Tropical N
Atlantic waters starting late on Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 0300 UTC, a weak, 1013 mb low pressure center was found
near 28N72W. A cold front extends from this low pressure center
over the NW Bahamas, to near Cocoa Beach, FL. A cold front also
enters the area near 31N64W, and extends to near the newly
formed 1013 mb low. Moderate to fresh NE winds are recorded
behind the fronts, with 7 to 10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh SW
winds are noted from 28N to 31N and between the front and 56W.
Showers and thunderstorms are along and just ahead of the
boundaries. A surface trough is also noted in the vicinity,
stretching from 27N70W to the southern Bahamas. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm east of the trough.

For the forecast, the cold front in the western Atlantic will
reach from near 30N55W to the central Bahamas by early Tue
evening, then weaken on Wed as high pressure builds in east of
Florida. Moderate to fresh N winds will come in behind this
front tonight into Tue. Large long-period N to NE swell will
continue to affect much of the area for the next couple of days.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to
develop offshore NE Florida beginning Wed night as a strong cold
front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. The front is
forecast to move off the coast late Thu, reach from near 31N76W
to Stuart, Florida early Fri, from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas
and to Havana, Cuba by late Fri night and from near 31N55W to
28N55W and as a weakening stationary front to the Straits of
Florida Sat and Sat night. The fresh to strong southerly winds
will shift eastward across the northern and central waters
through Sat, while fresh west to northwest winds are expected
behind the front.

Farther east, a cold front enters the area near 31N27W and
extends to near 26N37W. Fresh to strong SW to W winds were noted
in an earlier ASCAT pass from 25N to 31N between 37W and 19W.
Seas range from 10 to 13 ft. Elsewhere, the Atlantic basin is
dominated by an area of high pressure, with the 1019 mb center
anchored near 21N33W. Light to gentle winds extend across the N
tropical Atlantic, south of 20N, and from 20N to 30N between 37W
and 57W.

$$
Mora
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