[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102250
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Dec 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A string of low pressure centers
along a western Atlantic front extend between 45W and 63W across
the Atlantic just N of the discussion area. These lows are
forecast to move SE through Sun, and move across the NE portions
of the discussion area. Gale force NW winds have crossed southward
of 31N in the past couple of hours, and cover the area between 60W
and 66W to the N of 30N. Seas across this area are estimated at 14
to 17 ft. These conditions will diminish Sun morning as the low
centers weaken and move more E along 30N while weakening. For more
information, please refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 35N20W
to near 25N30W this evening. A morning ASCAT pass found gale
force winds ahead of the front, mainly N of 23N between 27W and
32W. Winds are assumed to have diminished to around 30 kt across
this area late this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue within 120 nm of the front. The front will continue to
lift northward tonight, allowing winds to subside further, and
seas to gradually abate through the weekend. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at the website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N12.5W to 07.5N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N15W to 05N26W
to the coast of Brazil near 02.5N51W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 08N between the west
coast of Africa and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb
high pressure centered offshore the Mississippi River Delta.
Winds are light to gentle in the NE Gulf, where seas are 1-3 ft.
The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate E-SE winds,
except SSE across the Texas near and offshore waters. Seas are
2-4 ft across these areas.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail through the Sun
night, then shift eastward early next week as a cold front
approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will continue through
the weekend, except becoming moderate to fresh from the southeast
to south across the central Gulf late Mon night into early Wed.
Winds may increase to locally strong in the western Gulf late Mon
night into early Tue evening as the front approaches. The front
is expected to move across the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night, then
reach from southwest Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu
night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected behind the
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Late morning scatterometer data showed light to gentle winds in
the eastern Caribbean and moderate to locally fresh NE winds in
the central and western Caribbean, including the Windward Passage,
where seas are 3 to 5 ft. The pressure gradient between
subtropical high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower
pressure over Colombia is allowing for fresh to strong winds to
pulse offshore Colombia, where seas are up to 8 ft. Higher seas
continue at 6-8 ft in the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean due
to large NE swell originating from the strong low system in the
central Atlantic.

For the forecast, large NE swell across the central Atlantic will
continue to move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical
Atlantic waters through tonight, subsiding on Sun before building
again early next week as another large N swell event reaches the
region. High pressure north of the Caribbean will allow for
gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds across the basin,
except for fresh to strong pulsing northeast to east winds
offshore Colombia during the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warnings in the basin.

A cold front, related to the low pressure centers mentioned in
the special features section, continues to move south and eastward
over the western Atlantic waters, and extends from 31N45W to
22N60W to 22N72W. A stationary front extends from the FL/GA border
to near 28N76W. Fresh to strong N to NW winds prevail north of
the cold front and E of 72W, while fresh N to NE winds prevail N
of the stationary from W of 77W. Seas are 10-15 ft in N and NE
swell north of the cold front. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade
winds cover a large area near the Tropical N Atlantic from the
equator to 20N between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles, where seas are 6 to 10 ft in N and NW swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will weaken as it
shifts east of the area by late Sun night. Large long-period
north to northeast swell will continue to impact the Atlantic
waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas
and the eastern Caribbean, producing high seas into the start of
next week. Long-period east swell is expected to reach the
Florida offshore waters north of 27N well into next week.

$$
Stripling
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