[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110408
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Dec 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A string of low pressure centers
along a western Atlantic front extend between 45W and 63W across
the Atlantic just N of the discussion area. These lows are
forecast to move SE through Sun, and move across the NE portions
of the discussion area. Gale force NW winds cover the area
between 60W and 66W to the N of 30N. Seas across this area are
estimated at 14 to 18 ft. These conditions will diminish Sun
morning as the low centers weaken and move more E along 30N
while weakening. For more information, please refer to the High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 03N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N,
between 17W to 23W. Isolated weak convection is observed within
150 nm of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front has entered the far NE Gulf waters. Otherwise
the basin is dominated by a high pressure ridge. Winds are light
to gentle in the NE Gulf, where seas are 1-3 ft. The remainder
of the basin is dominated by moderate E-SE winds and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, surface ridging will begin to shift eastward
early next week as a cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle
to moderate winds will continue through the weekend, except
becoming moderate to fresh southeast to south in the central
Gulf late Mon night into early Wed. Winds may increase to
locally strong speeds in the western Gulf late Mon night into
early Tue evening as the front approaches from the NW. Seas will
also build in the western Gulf. The front is expected to move
across the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night, then reach from southwest
Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu night. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are expected behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and
lower pressure over Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh E-
NE winds in the central and NW basin, including the Windward
Passage. Locally strong NE winds are occurring offshore
Colombia. Winds are gentle in the eastern Caribbean. Seas are
generally 3-5 ft across the majority of the basin, except 5-7 ft
offshore Colombia and 6-8 ft NE swell in the Mona and Anegada
Passages.

For the forecast, large long-period northeast swell across the
central Atlantic will continue move through the Caribbean
Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through tonight, subsiding
on Sun before building again early next week as another swell
event reaches the region. High pressure north of the Caribbean
is allowing for gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds
across the basin, except for fresh to strong pulsing northeast
to east winds offshore Colombia during the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warnings in the basin.

A cold front, related to the low pressure centers mentioned in
the special features section, continues to move south and
eastward over the western Atlantic waters, and extends from
31N41W to 20N60W to 29N80W. Fresh to strong NW winds prevail
north of 23N and east of 70W. Seas gradually increase north of
the front from 8 to 16 ft. Fresh to strong SW winds are
occurring east of the front where seas are 12-16 ft. Another
cold front in the eastern Atlantic extends from 31N20W to
28N27W. Recent scatterometer data indicates winds have decreased
below gale force and 12-16 ft westerly swell will slowly abate
through Sun.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front associated to a large
area of complex low pressure north of the area extends
southwestward to 20N65W and to just east of the southeastern
Bahamas. Gale-force winds behind the front N of 30N between 61W
and 65W will diminish to just below gale-force early Sun morning
as the complex area of low pressure shifts eastward and weakens.
The cold front will weaken as it shifts east of the area by late
Sun night. Large long- period north to northeast swell will
continue to impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages
between the southeastern Bahamas and the eastern Caribbean,
producing high seas into the start of next week. Long-period
east swell is expected to reach the Florida offshore waters
north of 27N well into next week. Hazardous marine conditions
are likely, especially east of the Bahamas through Mon.

$$
Flynn
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