[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Dec 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure center will
approach from the N today to the area near 31N58W supporting
gale force winds to develop north of 29N between 60W and 65W.
Seas of 15 to 19 ft will prevail in the area of strongest winds.
These conditions will dissipate by Sun morning as the low
continues moving E while weakening. More information, please
refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N27W
to 24N34W. A recent ASCAT pass found gale force winds ahead of
the front, mainly N of 23N between 27W and 32W where seas are
rough to very rough. Showers and thunderstorms are noted within
120 nm of the front. The front will continue to lift northward
today, allowing gales to subside and seas to gradually abate
through the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by Meteo-France at the website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 08N15W. The ITCZ continues from 08N15W to 05N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 03N to 08N between the west coast of Africa and
19W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb
high pressure centered offshore the Mississippi River Delta.
Winds are light to gentle in the NE Gulf, where seas are 1-3 ft.
The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate E-SE winds
and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail through the Sun
night, then shift eastward early next week as a cold front
approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will continue
through the weekend, except becoming moderate to fresh southeast
to south in the central Gulf late Mon night into early Wed.
Winds may increase to locally strong speeds in the western Gulf
late Mon night into early Tue evening as the front approaches
from the NW. The front is expected to move across the NW Gulf
Wed and Wed night while weakening. Moderate northeast winds are
expected behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer pass reports gentle to moderate winds in
the eastern Caribbean and moderate to locally fresh NE winds in
the central and western Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. The pressure gradient between
subtropical high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower
pressure over Colombia is allowing for fresh to strong winds to
pulse offshore Colombia, where seas are up to 8 ft. Seas
continue to be elevated to 6 ft near Atlantic passages due to
long period NE swell originating from the strong low system in
the central Atlantic.

For the forecast, large long-period northeast swell across the
central Atlantic will continue move through the Caribbean
Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through tonight, subsiding
on Sun before building again early next week as another swell
event reaches the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warnings in the basin.

A cold front, related to the low mentioned in the special
features section, moved south and eastward over the western
Atlantic waters. It enters the AOR near 31N50W and extends SW
23N62W, then curves northward and transitions to a stationary
front near 27N74W. The stationary front extends to the FL/GA
border. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in scatterometer data
behind the boundaries, where seas are likely 8 to 12 ft.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds cover a large area
near the Tropical N Atlantic from the equator to 20N between the
W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 5 to
10 ft in NW swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will weaken as it
shifts east of the area by late Sun night. Large long-period
north to northeast swell will continue to impact the Atlantic
waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas
and the eastern Caribbean, producing high seas into the start of
next week. Long-period east swell is expected to reach the
Florida offshore waters north of 27N well into next week.

$$
MORA
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