[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Dec 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N30W
to 21N39W. Gale force winds are noted ahead of the front, mainly N
of 28N between 27W-31W. Seas in this area are expected to remain
in the 20-24 ft range. Scattered moderate convection extends about 180 nm
ahead of the front. Winds will weaken by this morning at 12 UTC,
but swells will prevail through the weekend.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure center will approach
from the N today to the area near 31N58W supporting gale force
winds to develop near 30N62W tonight. Seas of 15 to 19 ft will
prevail in the area of strongest winds. These conditions will
dissipate by Sun 11/06 UTC as the low continues moving E while
weakening.

More information, please refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 08N15W. The ITCZ continues from 08N15W to 02N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough mainly E of
21W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high
pressure centered near 29N88W. Winds are light to gentle in the
NE Gulf, where seas are 1-3 ft. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by moderate E-SE winds and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue meandering over the
northern Gulf waters through the weekend, then shift eastward
early next week as a cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail through the weekend, increasing to
moderate to fresh early next week. Winds may increase to locally
strong speeds and seas build up to 7-8 ft in the western Gulf as
the aforementioned front approaches from the NW.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the
western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is generating
moderate to fresh NE winds west of 73W in Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage, where seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range. Fresh to
strong NE winds are pulsing off NW Colombia coast, generating
seas to 7 ft. In the E Caribbean, gentle to moderate N to NE
winds prevail with mainly 4 to 6 ft seas. Seas are 8 to 10 ft near
and SW of Atlantic passages due to long period NE swell
originating from the strong low system in the central Atlantic.

For the forecast, large NE swell across the central Atlantic will
continue move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical
Atlantic waters through today, decreasing on Sun and increasing
again early next week as another swell event reaches the region.
Surface ridging north of the Caribbean maintains NE-E winds across
much of the forecast waters. Fresh to strong pulsing NE-E winds
will occur in offshore Colombia into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
the Gale Warnings in the basin.

Elsewhere, seas of 8 to 11 ft cover the remainder SW N Atlantic
waters E of the Bahamas due to long period NE swell associated
with the strong non-tropical low N of our area. High pressure in
the far eastern Atlantic is leading to light winds north of 22N
off the African coast.

For the forecast W of 55W, the powerful non-tropical low over the
north Atlantic continues to move away from the area. Large long-period
N to NE swell will continue to impact the Atlantic waters and
Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E
Caribbean, producing high seas into the start of next week, with
large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N today.

$$
ERA
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