[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042304
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Dec 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: 1006 mb low pressure is centered near
24N51W. NE to E winds have diminished to near-gale force north of
28N between 46W and 51W. Seas are 13-18 ft within the warning
area. NE to E winds will remain near-gale force through tomorrow,
allowing seas to subside to 10-14 ft. Winds will return to gale
force Monday evening as the low drifts northwest, with seas
building to 12-16 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued Gale Warnings
for the following offshore zones: MADEIRA through 05/0900 UTC,
and CANARIAS through 05/0000 UTC. Winds to Force 8, with severe
gusts, are currently underway in these zones. Seas are 12-16 ft in
N swell. Additional warnings have been issued for developing
gales in AGADIR from 05/0300 to 05/1500 UTC. Please refer to the
following website:
weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.1952.0419523846038.html
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W
to 06N26W. The ITCZ continues from 06N26W to 05N52W near the
coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection associated
with the monsoon trough is from 03N to 08N between 15W and 23W.
Some showers are noted along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from 30N85W to 27N97W. Winds are
gentle in the lee of the front with no significant convection
noted. A trough is located 60 nm offshore and parallel to the
coast of Mexico. Scattered showers are noted in the far SW Bay of
Campeche near the trough. NE winds are gentle to moderate across
the the basin south of the stationary front. Seas are 3-5 ft,
highest in the Bay of Campeche, and locally 6 ft in the Yucatan
Channel.

For the forecast, the stationary front over the northern Gulf
will dissipate tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of
the front and dominate much of the week. Patchy fog may restrict
visibility across portions of the NW waters, S of the front,
tonight. Please refer to coastal Dense Fog Advisories issued by
your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov for
more information.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Caribbean remains quiet, with generally clear and dry
conditions across most of the basin. NE winds are moderate to
fresh in the western and central Caribbean, including within the
Windward Passage. Elsewhere, NE winds are gentle to moderate. Seas
are 2-4 ft in the E Caribbean, 4-6 ft seas in the central
Caribbean, and 4-7 ft in the W Caribbean. Localized seas to 8 ft
are present where the strong winds are impacting waters in the
vicinity of the Cayman Islands.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between building
high pressure to the north and climatological low pressure over
Colombia will support moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the
area, with areas of strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward
Passage, and offshore Colombia. Winds will slowly diminish for the
start of the week, with little overall change in weather pattern
anticipated during the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the
GALE WARNING in effect for the central Atlantic.

The dominant feature continues to be the low pressure described in
the SPECIAL FEATURES section. A well-defined trough extends from
26N44W to the low at 23N58W to 27N60W. Scattered moderate
convection near the trough is from 20N to 30N between 53W and
63W. To the N of the low, a weakening stationary front extends
along 29N between 38W and 48W. Scattered moderate convection
near the front is north of 26N between 32W and 40W.

In the Central and Western Atlantic, a large area of seas greater
than 8 ft is north of a line from 31N36W to 20N55W to 21N70W to
26N76W to 31N68W. Seas greater than 12 ft are north of a line
from 31N40W to 24N56W to 28N64W to 31N62W. Highest seas are in the
GALE WARNING area. Swell direction is NE. NE to N winds are fresh
to strong in these areas of high seas.

In the Eastern Atlantic, seas are 8 ft or greater north of a line
from the coast of Western Sahara near 31N10W to 23N22W to 31N31W,
with gales with highest seas in the EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING.
Swell direction is N.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of
the tropical Atlantic, with seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong NE to E winds prevail E of 70W.
Special feature low will drift W then N through the week, bringing
additional strong winds to the NE waters for much of next week,
with gales possible starting Tue night. Long-period north to
northeast swell will impact the waters between the southeastern
Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas for much of the week.

$$
ERA
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