[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Dec 05 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: A 1006 mb low pressure
center is near 24N53W. The low pressure center will be in nearly
the same spot in about 24 hours or so, at 1005 mb. Gale-force
winds, and sea heights that range from 14 feet to 18 feet, are
forecast to develop in 24 hours, from 29N to 31N between 48W and
50.5W. The gale-force winds, and sea heights that will range
from 15 feet to 20 feet, are forecast to continue in more or
less the same areas of the central Atlantic Ocean, for at least
another 24 hours after the initial development period. Please,
read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

METEO-FRANCE Marine Areas in the eastern Atlantic Ocean:
gale-force winds are being forecast for parts of the next 24
hours or so, in MADEIRA, CASABLANCA, and in AGADIR. The OUTLOOK
consists of: near gale or gale in the areas that are from 30N
northward from 15W westward. Please, refer to the
following website:
weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.1952.0419
523846038.html,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, to
03N20W 06N26W 08N47W. Precipitation: isolated to widely
scattered moderate, and isolated strong, is within 180 nm to 240
nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is in the northern parts of the Gulf of
Mexico, generally from 27N northward. The wind speeds are gentle
in the lee of the front, with no significant convective
precipitation.
 of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 20N southward from 93W eastward. NE
winds are gentle to moderate, from the stationary front
southward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, with the
highest values in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and the
sea heights are reaching 6 feet, locally, in the Yucatan Channel.

The stationary front that is in the northern Gulf will dissipate
tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and
dominate much of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Caribbean Sea remains quiet, with generally clear and dry
conditions in most of the basin. NE winds are moderate to fresh
in the western and central Caribbean, including within the
Windward Passage. Elsewhere, NE winds are gentle to moderate.
Seas are 2-4 ft in the E Caribbean, 4-6 ft seas in the central
Caribbean, and 4-7 ft in the W Caribbean. Localized seas to 8 ft
are in the areas  where the strong winds are impacting the
waters that are in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands.

A tight pressure gradient between building high pressure to the
north and climatological low pressure in Colombia will support
moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area, with areas of
strong winds in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Winds
will slowly diminish Mon and Tue, with little overall change in
weather pattern anticipated during the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
gale-force wind warnings, in the central Atlantic Ocean, and in
the METEO-FRANCE marine areas.

The dominant feature continues to be the 1006 mb low pressure
center that is one of the subjects for the SPECIAL FEATURES
section.

The GFS model for 500 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow is to the
south of the 1006 mb low pressure center that is near 24N53W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the
south of the 1006 mb low pressure center, between 47W and 60W.
Scattered moderate to strong is within 300 nm to 400 nm of the
1006 mb low pressure center in the N semicircle. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 22N to 28N between
58W and 62W.

for the Central and Western Atlantic Ocean: sea heights that are
greater than 8 feet are to the north of the line 31N36W 20N55W
21N70W 26N76W 31N68W. Sea heights that are greater than 12 feet
are to the north of the line: 31N40W 24N56W 28N64W 31N62W. The
comparatively highest sea heights are in the GALE WARNING area.
The swell direction is from the NE. NE to N winds are fresh to
strong in these areas of the high seas.

for the Eastern Atlantic Ocean: the sea heights are 8 feet or
greater to the north of a line
from the coast of Western Sahara near 31N10W to 23N22W to
31N31W, with gales with highest seas in the EAST ATLANTIC Ocean
GALE WARNING areas. The swell direction is from the N.

Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet
to 7 feet, are in the remainder of
the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail E of 70W. Low pressure
just E of the area near 24N54W will drift north through midweek,
then turn E and move away from the area late this week. This
will bring additional strong winds to the NE waters Mon, likely
increasing to gales Tue night and continuing into Thu.
Long-period north to northeast swell will impact the waters
between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas
through the week.

$$
mt/sk
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