[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Dec 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: 1007 mb low pressure is centered near
24N51W. NE to E Winds have diminished to near-gale force north of
28N between 46W and 51W. Seas are 15-19 ft within the warning
area. NE to E winds will remain near-gale force today and
tomorrow, allowing seas to subside to 11-15 ft. Winds will return
to gale force Monday evening as the low drifts northwest, with
seas building to 13-16 ft. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued Gale Warnings
for the following offshore zones: MADEIRA through 05/0900 UTC,
and CANARIAS through 05/0000 UTC. Winds to Force 8, with severe
gusts, are currently underway in these zones. Seas are 12-16 ft in
N swell. Additional warnings have been issued for developing
gales in the following offshore zones: AGADIR from 05/0300 to
05/1500 UTC, and CADIZ from 05/1200 to 05/2100 UTC. Please refer
to the following website:
http://www.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W
to 06N18W to 06N26W. The ITCZ continues from 06N26W to 05N52W
near the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection
associated with the monsoon trough is from 03N to 08N between 15W
and 23W. Some showers are noted along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1500 UTC, a weakening stationary front extends from near Panama
City, Florida to just south of Corpus Christi, Texas. Winds are
gentle in the lee of the front with no significant convection
noted. A trough is located 60 nm offshore and parallel to the
coast of Mexico. Scattered showers are noted in the far SW Bay of
Campeche near the trough. NE winds are gentle to moderate across
the the basin south of the stationary front. Seas are 3-5 ft,
highest in the Bay of Campeche, and locally 6 ft in the Yucatan
Channel.

For the forecast, high pressure will build in the wake of the
front and dominate much of the week. Patchy fog may restrict
visibility across portions of the NW waters, S of the front,
today. Please refer to coastal Dense Fog Advisories issued by your
local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov for more
information.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Caribbean remains quiet, with generally clear and dry
conditions across most of the basin. NE winds are moderate to
fresh in the western and central Caribbean, including within the
Windward Passage. Elsewhere, NE winds are gentle to moderate. Seas
are 2-4 ft in the E Caribbean, 4-6 ft seas in the central
Caribbean, and 4-7 ft in the W Caribbean. Localized seas to 8 ft
are present where the strong winds are impacting waters in the
vicinity of the Cayman Islands.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between building high
pressure to the north and climatological low pressure over
Colombia will support moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the
area today, with areas of strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia. Winds will slowly
diminish for the start of the week, with little overall change in
weather pattern anticipated during the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
multiple GALE WARNINGS.

The dominant feature continues to be the low pressure described in
the SPECIAL FEATURES section. A well-defined trough extends from
27N42W to the low at 24N51W to 22N58W to 28N63W. Scattered
moderate convection near the trough is from 23N to 29N between 55W
and 60W. The shear line and western sections of the previously
analyzed cold front have dissipated, with only a weak cold front
extending from 31N36W to 28N48W. Scattered moderate convection
near the cold front is north of 28N between 38W and 41W.

In the Central and Western Atlantic, a large area of seas greater
than 8 ft is north of a line from 31N36W to 20N55W to 21N70W to
26N76W to 31N68W. Seas greater than 12 ft are north of a line
from 31N40W to 24N56W to 28N64W to 31N62W. Highest seas are in the
GALE WARNING area. Swell direction is NE. NE to N winds are fresh
to strong in these areas of high seas.

In the Eastern Atlantic, seas are 8 ft or greater north of a line
from the coast of Western Sahara near 31N10W to 23N22W to 31N31W,,
with gales with highest seas in the EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING.
Swell direction is N.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of
the tropical Atlantic. Seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong NE to E winds will develop E of
70W today. Low pressure currently E of the area near 24N52W will
drift W then N through the week, bringing additional strong winds
to the NE waters for much of next week, with gales possible
starting Tue night. Long- period north to northeast swell will
impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico
with rough seas for much of the week.

$$
Mahoney
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