[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Dec 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N44W to
24N59W. Behind this front, strong NE to E winds prevail with an
area of gales N of 29N between 46W and 51W. Seas through the area
of strong winds are in excess of 12 ft, with waves nearing 20 ft
where the gales are ongoing. This cold front should weaken today,
allowing gales to temporarily subside this afternoon. However, low
pressure to the SE of the front, currently near 24N51W at 1008 mb,
will gradually strengthen as it drifts northwest for the first
part of this week. NE gales associated with this low should
redevelop in a similar area as the current gales, starting Mon
night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force winds are in the
eastern part of IRVING until 04/1800 UTC. Gale-force winds are
forecast for MADEIRA from 04/1200 UTC until 05/0000 UTC. Gale-
force winds are forecast in CANARIAS from 04/1500 UTC until
05/0000 UTC. Gales or near gale conditions are expected to
continue Mon in the northern part of IRVING, and in MADEIRA,
CASABLANCA, AGADIR, TARFAYA, and CANARIAS. The threat of a SEVERE
GALE is in CASABLANCA. Please refer to the following website:
http://www.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to
06N20W to 06N26W. The ITCZ continues from 06N26W to 07N34W to
05N43W to 04N51W near the coast of Brazil and French Guiana.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring along both of these
features, extending N to about 10N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from Louisiana to Deep South Texas. A
pre-frontal trough is noted from Alabama to 24N95W. No significant
convection is occurring with these features. Moderate NE winds are
occurring behind the cold front. Moderate NE to E winds are also
ongoing in the SE Gulf and Bay of Campeche, with locally fresh
winds offshore the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the
Florida Straits. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of
the basin. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the SE Gulf of Mexico and in the
Bay of Campeche, with 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front in the NW Gulf will stall today,
then dissipate tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of
the front and dominate much of the week. Patchy fog may restrict
visibility across portions of the NW waters, S of the front,
today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively dry air and subsidence dominate the basin this morning,
precluding any convection. Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing
across the central and western Caribbean, with strong winds in
the Windward Passage and in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands.
Mainly gentle NE to N are present in the eastern Caribbean. Seas
are 3 to 5 ft in the eastern basin and 5 to 7 ft in the central
and western basin. Localized seas of around 8 ft are present where
the strong winds are impacting waters in the vicinity of the
Cayman Islands.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between building high
pressure to the north and climatological low pressure over
Colombia will support moderate to fresh NE to E trades across
the area today, with areas of strong winds in the lee of Cuba,
the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia. Winds will slowly
diminish for the start of the week, with little overall change
in weather pattern anticipated during the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on gale
conditions SE of Bermuda as well as additional gales in the NE
Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N44W to 24N59W, with a shear line
continuing westward to just E of the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Scattered moderate convection associated with this front is
bounded from 21N to 25N between 56W to 64W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 25N to 30N between 54W
and 64W, mainly behind the frontal boundary. Strong NE winds
behind the cold front extend back to about 65W, then fresh winds
prevail back through the Bahamas. In the NW basin offshore
Florida, winds diminish to light to gentle. Seas between the front
and the Bahamas are in excess of 12 ft, with seas of 8 to 12 ft
impacting areas N of the Bahamas and areas S of the front to 20N.

E of the cold front, 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 24N51W.
Strong NE winds and 12 to 16 ft seas dominate the NW quadrant of
this low, extending W to the aforementioned cold front. The low
is generated numerous moderate to isolated strong convection N of
25N between 39W and 50W, in the NE quadrant. Still farther E, A
surface trough stretches from the Canary Islands to 23N25W to
30N40W. Fresh to strong W winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft area N of
this feature. Over the remainder of the basin, winds are moderate
or less and seas are 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move and out of
the area today, while the shear line dissipates. High pressure
building in the wake of the front will lead to strong NE to E
winds for areas E of 70W today. Low pressure currently E of the
area will drift W then N through the week, bringing additional
strong winds to the NE waters for much of next week, with gales
possible starting Tue night. Long- period north to northeast swell
will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and
Puerto Rico with rough seas into early week.

$$
KONARIK
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