[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Dec 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: A cold front passes
through 31N46W to 26N60W. A shear line continues from 26N60W to
24N68W, to the Turks and Caicos Islands in the SE Bahamas. A 1008
mb low pressure center is near 25N51W. The surface pressure
gradient, that is between the front and the 1008 mb low pressure
center, is supporting gale force NE winds from 30N to 31N between
48W and 54W. The sea heights will be ranging from 17 feet to 23
feet in N swell. The cold front will continue to move
southeastward in the direction of the low pressure center. The
low pressure center is forecast to move southwestward during the
next 24 hours. Gale-force winds will continue for the next 18
hours. The 48-hour forecast consists of another round of gale-
force winds, and sea heights to range from 13 feet to 17 feet,
from 30N to 31N between 48W and 51W. Please, read the latest High
Seas Forecast, at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for more details.

METEO-FRANCE Marine Areas: Gale-force winds are in the eastern
part of IRVING until 04/1800 UTC. Gale-force winds are forecast
for MADEIRA from 04/1200 UTC until 05/0000 UTC. Gale-force winds
are forecast in CANARIAS from 04/1500 UTC until 05/0000 UTC.
s starting on 04/00Z. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow
the initial forecast time, consists of: near gale or gale in the
northern part of IRVING, and in MADEIRA, CASABLANCA, AGADIR,
TARFAYA, and in CANARIAS. The threat of a SEVERE GALE is in
CASABLANCA. Please, refer to the following website:
http://www.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea near 11N15W, to
06N20W and 06N26W. The ITCZ continues from 06N26W, to 06N33W,
07N35W, 05N43W, and to 04N51W near the coast of Brazil and French
Guiana. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

One surface trough is along the western coast of Florida. A second
surface trough extends from southern Mississippi, through SE
Louisiana, to 24N95W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
24N northward from 85W westward, and from 23N southward from 90W
westward. A cold front is in the Texas coastal plains.

Fresh NE winds are from 24N southward between the Yucatan Channel
and 92W. Light and variable winds are from 27N northward. Gentle
to moderate E winds are from 27N southward. Locally fresh winds
are in the Straits of Florida. The sea heights range from 7 feet
to 8 feet in the Yucatan Channel. The sea heights range from 2
feet to 5 feet from 90W eastward...the sea heights become
progressively higher from north to south. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet, from 90W westward.

A cold front has reached the NW and north central coastal
sections of the Gulf of Mexico. The front will stall on Sunday,
and dissipate on Sunday night. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front and dominate much of next week. Patchy fog may
restrict visibility across portions of the NW waters tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 21N66W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through the Mona Passage, to 17N69W and 16N71W, to 15N79W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in the water
vapor imagery in much of the area. The sharpest contrast is to the
north of the line that runs from 17N63W to 14N70W, to 14N83W at
the coast of Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from
15N northward from 78W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, through Panama at
09N80W, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the tropical NE
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 13N
southward from 74W westward, in areas of low level clouds in the
trade wind flow. Any precipitation that may be more directly
related to the monsoon trough is to the south of the monsoon
trough, and outside the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to fresh NNE winds are in the central and western
Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate trade winds are in the eastern
Caribbean Sea. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 8 feet
in the NW corner of the area, from 19N northward from 84W
westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 70W
eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere,
away from the NW corner of the area.

A tight pressure gradient between building high pressure to the
north and climatological low pressure over Colombia will support
moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area into Sun, with
areas of strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage,
and offshore Colombia. Winds will then slowly diminish for the
start of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
gale-force wind warnings, in the central Atlantic Ocean, and in
the METEO-FRANCE marine areas.

A cold front passes through 31N46W to 26N60W. A shear line
continues from 26N60W to 24N68W, to the Turks and Caicos Islands
in the SE Bahamas. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is
within 240 nm to the north of the front and shear line between 56W
and 65W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm
to the southeast of the cold front between 36W and 50W. Isolated
moderate is within 180 nm to the SE of the front and shear line
between 55W and 65W. Fresh to strong N winds are from the front
and the shear line northward between 60W and 70W. Fresh to strong
NE winds are from Cuba to 27N between 70W and 79W, and in the
Windward Passage. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 18
feet from 21N northward between 40W and 65W. Gentle NE winds are
from shear line southward.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean dissipating cold front passes through
Morocco near 31N09W, to 25N20W 24N26W, to 31N40W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 20N northward from 40W eastward.
Fresh winds, and faster, are from 31N northward between 20W and
30W. Moderate to fresh N winds are to the north of the front. The
sea heights range from 7 feet to 12 feet in long period N swell,
from 24N northward from 40W eastward.

Gentle to moderate trade winds, and sea heights that range from 5
feet to 7 feet, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from 26N55W to 25N59W, then becomes a shear
line and continues to the Turks and Caicos. The front will move
east and out of the area tonight while the shear line dissipates.
High pressure building in the wake of the front will lead to
strong NE to E winds across much of the forecast area into Sun.
Low pressure currently E of the area near 24N51W will drift W the
N through next week, bringing strong winds to the NE waters for
much of next week. Long- period north to northeast swell will
impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico
with rough seas into early next week.

$$
mt/sk
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